Demography is destiny in politics, or so we have heard. In 2004, the growth of the exurbs was said to be generating a permanent Republican majority. Now the strong support for the Democrats by young people, Hispanics, and non-Christians is said to be creating an unstoppable trend toward liberalism.
The demographic trends are real. National Journal columnist Ronald Brownstein recently illustrated how much they matter with a neat exercise. He divided the electorate into six broad demographic groups — e.g., college-educated white voters and Hispanics — and noted how each had voted in the McCain–Obama contest. “If each of these groups voted as it did in 2008 but constituted the same share of the electorate as in 1992, McCain would have won. Comfortably.”
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