Can Their Program Be Destroyed?

AT Natanz, about 130 miles from Tehran, the Iranian regime is constructing a vast “commercial scale” uraniumenrichment facility that will house as many as 55,000 centrifuges. Deep under several meters of steel-reinforced concrete, conveniently out of reach of the most powerful known conventional bunker-busters, the facility will be able to produce sizeable quantities of lightly enriched uranium (LEU) in a matter of months once it is operational. The steps required to enrich LEU all the way to highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium are few and have been described by experts as purely mechanical.

Some have argued that operational launch of these main “enrichment cascades” at Natanz, which could occur next year, should in and of itself be considered a red line by U.S. officials-i.e., a line Iran must not be permitted to cross. But Iran is generally cooperating with inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency: If it continues to do so, and if the plant’s operations remain transparent, the Bush administration is likely to conclude that it can hold its breath for a little while to see how things develop. It will be a nail-biting period of months; intelligence assessments will be studied nervously; allies will be consulted weekly; and the most minor IAEA inspections will be followed minutely.

About the Author

Mario Loyola

Mario Loyola is a professor of environment at Florida International University and a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

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AT Natanz, about 130 miles from Tehran, the Iranian regime is constructing a vast “commercial scale” uraniumenrichment facility that will house as many as 55,000 centrifuges. Deep under several meters of steel-reinforced concrete, conveniently out of reach of the most powerful known conventional bunker-busters, the facility will be able to produce sizeable quantities of lightly enriched uranium (LEU) in a matter of months once it is operational. The steps required to enrich LEU all the way to highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium are few and have been described by experts as purely mechanical.

Some have argued that operational launch of these main “enrichment cascades” at Natanz, which could occur next year, should in and of itself be considered a red line by U.S. officials-i.e., a line Iran must not be permitted to cross. But Iran is generally cooperating with inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency: If it continues to do so, and if the plant’s operations remain transparent, the Bush administration is likely to conclude that it can hold its breath for a little while to see how things develop. It will be a nail-biting period of months; intelligence assessments will be studied nervously; allies will be consulted weekly; and the most minor IAEA inspections will be followed minutely.