Karl Rove has a rosy assessment of the GOP’s chances in 2010 in today’s WSJ. An excerpt:

History will favor Republicans in 2010. Since World War II, the out-party has gained an average of 23 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate in a new president’s first midterm election. Other than FDR and George W. Bush, no president has gained seats in his first midterm election in both chambers.
Since 1966, the incumbent party has lost an average of 63 state senate and 262 state house seats, and six governorships, in a president’s first midterm election. That 2010 is likely to see Republicans begin rebounding just before redistricting is one silver lining in an otherwise dismal year for the GOP.
In politics, good years follow bad years. Republicans and Democrats have experienced both during the past 15 years. A GOP comeback, while certainly possible, won’t be self-executing and automatic. It will require Republicans to be skillful at both defense (opposing Mr. Obama on some issues) and offense (creating a compelling agenda that resonates with voters). And it will require leaders to emerge who give the right public face to the GOP. None of this will be easy. All of this will be necessary.

I actually think quite the opposite, at least at the federal level. Take a look at the GOP Senators up in 2010. After seeing the type of money Obama was able to raise in 2008, there are only a handful of seats that I’d consider safe at this point with a cash flush Democratic party on the attack. And if the NRSC has to defend say a dozen seats, how much money will there be to go on offense? The answer is little, if any.

There’s better news on the gubernatorial side, however, with at least a few races that should go the GOP’s way with the right candidate recruitment.