For those of us who try to forecast where higher education is going, we can glean a little from the Chronicle of Higher Education. It recently surveyed 350 presidents of four-year colleges and universities, public and private, on their views of innovation. Among the findings:

1) How much change American higher education needs to undergo in the next 10 years

  • Massive disruption: 12 percent
  • A moderate amount of disruption: 55 percent
  • Evolutionary or small changes: 33 percent

2) On the current pace of change in American higher education:

  • Too fast: 10 percent
  • Just about right: 27 percent
  • Too slow: 63 percent

3) Changes that should be given emphasis:

  • Cutting cost: 23 percent
  • Changes to the model of teaching and learning: 46 percent
  • Technology and online tools: 31 percent

4) Changes that are being emphasized:

  • Cutting cost: 38 percent
  • Changes to the model of teaching and learning: 23 percent
  • Technology and online tools: 39 percent

(That is, there is too much emphasis on cost control, not enough on changing the teaching model.)

And how is change going to come about? The presidents say presidents and faculty should lead the change, but that’s not happening. The authors summarize:

As presidents view the matter, politicians are driving change, but should in fact have little say, if any. They also maintain that business people have too much influence. Faculty, on the other hand, are failing to step up to the plate, according to the presidents….