The Guardian:
A new study published in Nature has found that the world’s largest mountain chain, running from the Himalayas to Tian Shan on the border of Kyrgystan and China, has not experienced any net loss of ice over the past decade.
This came as a surprise to glaciologists who had thought that melting in the Himalayas and nearby peaks was making an appreciable contribution to sea level rise.
Why the reassessment? Here’s how our story on the study puts it:
The reason for the radical reappraisal of ice melting in Asia is the different ways in which the current and previous studies were conducted. Until now, estimates of meltwater loss for all the world’s 200,000 glaciers were based on extrapolations of data from a few hundred monitored on the ground. Those glaciers at lower altitudes are much easier for scientists to get to and so were more frequently included, but they were also more prone to melting.
The rest here.
Michael Crichton was tarred by the alarmist community over his views doubting climate change, but if you had to sum up his views in one quick sentence it was always “don’t believe the model.” Here’s an excerpt from a debate where Crichton expresses his views:
The second thing I discovered was that everything is a concern about the future and the future is defined by models. The models tell us that human beings are the cause of the warming, that human beings, uh, producing all this CO2, are what‘s actually driving the climate warming that we‘re seeing now. But I was interested to see that the models, as far as I could tell, were not really reliable. That is to say, that past estimates have proven incorrect. Uh, in 1988, when James Hanson talked to the Congress and said that global warming had finally arrived, The New York Times published a model result that suggested that in the next hundred years there would be twelve degrees Celsius increase. A few years later the increase was estimated to be six degrees, then four degrees. The most recent U.N. estimate is three degrees. Will it continue to go down? I expect so. And this left me in a kind of a funny position. But let me first be clear about exactly what I‘m saying. Is the globe warming? Yes. Is the greenhouse effect real? Yes. Is carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, being increased by men? Yes. Would we expect this warming to have an effect? Yes. Do human beings in general effect the climate? Yes. But none of that answers the core question of whether or not carbon dioxide is the contemporary driver for the warming we‘re seeing. And as far as I could tell scientists had, had postulated that but they hadn‘t demonstrated it. So I‘m kinda stranded here. I‘ve got half a degree of warming, models that I don‘t think are reliable. And what, how am I going to think about the future? I reasoned in this way: if we‘re going to have one degree increase, maybe if, if, climate doesn‘t change and if, uh, and if there‘s no change in technology – but of course, if you don‘t imagine there will be a change in technology in the next hundred years you‘re a very unusual person.
What we’re seeing now is what Crichton warned about. You just can’t model this stuff with any accuracy.





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