This is not to say Republicans will pick up 50 House seats in 2012. But if, indeed, we are in a national political environment where a D+5 district like New York’s 9th congressional district is “in play,” then it means we will see a whole lot of vulnerable House Democrats in the coming cycle, even after a year in which one might think that the Republicans had picked all of the “low-hanging fruit” in the nation’s House races.

Courtesy the good folks at the NRCC, a list of the districts comparable to or more favorable than NY-9:

NY-9 PVI = D+5

DISTRICT PVI OLD PVI DEMOCRAT AR-3 (10) R+8 R+7 OPEN (ROSS) CA-9 (11) D+1 D+11 JOHN GARAMENDI CA-16 (18) D+2 D+4 DENNIS CARDOZA CA-21 (20) R+4 D+5 OPEN (COSTA) CA-24 (23) D+3 D+12 LOIS CAPPS CA-46 (47) D+3 D+4 LORETTA SANCHEZ CO-7 D+4 ED PERLMUTTER CT-4 D+5 JIM HIMES CT-5 D+2 OPEN (MURPHY) GA-2 D+5 D+1 SANFORD BISHOP GA-12 R+9 D+1 JOHN BARROW IA-1 D+5 D+5 BRUCE BRALEY IA-2 D+3 D+7 DAVE LOEBSACK IL-3 D+5 D+11 DAN LIPINSKY IL-12 D+3 D+2 JERRY COSTELLO IN-2 R+7 R+2 OPEN (DONNELLY) KY-3 D+2 JOHN YARMUTH KY-6 R+9 BEN CHANDLER MA-10 D+5 BILL KEATING ME-2 D+3 MIKE MICHAUD MN-1 R+1 TIM WALZ MN-7 R+5 COLLIN PETERSON NC-7 R+11 R+5 MIKE MCINTYRE NC-8 R+12 R+2 LARRY KISSELL NC-11 R+13 R+6 HEATH SHULER NC-13 R+10 D+5 BRAD MILLER NJ-12 D+5 RUSH HOLT NM-1 D+5 OPEN (HEINRICH) NY-1 EVEN TIM BISHOP NY-2 D+4 STEVE ISRAEL NY-23 R+1 BILL OWENS NY-26 R+6 KATHY HOCHUL NY-27 D+4 BRIAN HIGGINS OK-2 R+14 R+14 OPEN (BOREN) OR-4 D+3 D+2 PETER DEFAZIO OR-5 D+1 D+1 KURT SCHRADER PA-4 R+6 JASON ALTMIRE PA-12 R+1 MARK CRITZ PA-17 R+6 TIM HOLDEN TN-5 D+3 JIM COOPER TX-15 D+1 D+3 RUBEN HINOJOSA TX-20 D+4 D+8 CHARLIE GONZALEZ TX-28 D+3 EVEN HENRY CUELLAR UT-2 R+15 JIM MATHESON VA-11 D+2 GERRY CONNOLLY WA-2 D+3 RICK LARSEN WA-9 D+5 ADAM SMITH WV-3 R+6 R+6 NICK RAHALL WA-6 D+5 NORM DICKS OPEN Seats IL-8 D+5 OPEN CA-41 D+3 OPEN CA-47 D+5 OPEN TX-34 D+3 OPEN

Think about it, if Republicans win just 10 percent of these seats, they’ve offset the worst-case scenario of the new district lines in Illinois.