Rep. Rick Boucher, the Democrat who represents the westernmost corner of Virginia, is one of the potential members of Pelosi’s “Suicide Squad” — no votes who are considering flipping to yes. He’s attracted a top-tier Republican challenger in Virginia House majority leader Morgan Griffith.

There is a small issue of Griffith’s residence; he technically lives just across the border line from the 9th district; he told a columnist in Roanoke, “One of my trees blew down last night and fell into the 9th District.”

But that columnist, Dan Casey, offers an intriguing theory on how Griffith might be making a play for 2010 and 2012 at the same time:

Beyond his unblemished election record, Griffith risks absolutely nothing this year in challenging Boucher, 63.
If Griffith loses, he’ll keep his General Assembly seat, and he’s almost assured to keep the potent House majority leader’s post.
Meanwhile, there’s one thing Griffith will win even if Boucher beats him: a map of exactly where in the 9th Boucher runs weak and where Boucher runs strong.
That would be invaluable, because it’s beyond dispute that district will have to grow in area in the next round of reapportionment. The General Assembly will decide where and how.
Griffith will be in a position to help reconfigure the 9th District lines to include his own strongholds, and perhaps to exclude some of Boucher’s.
And by the time it’s all over, Salem will very likely fall in the 9th, blowing to smithereens any residency questions for at least the next 10 years.
For those reasons, I think that’s what we’re seeing right now: a smart, carefully plotted, entirely legal, longer-term strategy by Griffith to set himself up for a seat in Congress come 2012.

You figure if Boucher flips on health care, this makes a lot of the 2010/2012 talk moot . . .

UPDATE: A Republican watching this seat carefully disagrees:

The key vote in this district has already been cast: Cap & Trade. McDonnell ran on it and a little known Republican won a delegate seat in the district campaigning solely on it as well. Healthcare is number two among the top votes.