So last night I was chatting with my former Smart Washington Guy – who is formerly based in Washington, not formerly smart. SWG currently thinks that we’re going to see an Obama landslide of epic proportions, a filbuster-proof 60 seat Democratic Senate majority, that the Democrats may pick up 50 seats in the House, etc.

I mentioned the tracking polls showing a modest Obama lead, and SWG said be believed that because of the Obama turnout effort, the enthusiasm among African-American voters and young people, the enormous cash reserves that Obama has, etc. etc., that the screen for “likely voters” was probably dramatically underestimating who is going to show up on Election Day.

I mention this because Sean Oxendine — who’s starting to get Jay-Cost-level good — calls our attention to an interesting distinction in the tracking polls, between those that poll registered voters and those that poll likely voters:

“Using the polls currently in the RCP average, the three RV polls have Obama leading by 11, 7, and 6 (an average of 8). The LV polls have the lead at 6,2,1,4,3,8,3 (an average of just under 4). The question appears to be how accurate the likely voter screens are this year. If McCain is really within 4 in mid-October, then this thing is very winnable. If he’s behind by 8, things are a good bit dicier…”
…Likely voter screens typically ask if you have voted before for a reason. Every cycle we hear about how likely voter screens are going to be off because of an anticipated surge in Democratic turnout, and it is usually wrong, even in very good Democratic years. They tend not to be. It is one thing to meet a college kid on Franklin St. and get him to sign up to vote; it is another to get him to show up. I agree wholeheartedly that if there is a year when these voters are going to turnout, this is that year. But I also would have said 2006 was arguably that year, and young voters actually made up a smaller portion of the electorate than 2004.

Now. Maybe Smart Washington Guy is right, and maybe the registered voter total is closer to who will show up on Election Day. I have a hard time believing that Obama won’t get any “pop” in his vote totals from all of the resources they’re pouring into voter registration, etc. But I’ll be keeping a close eye on actual cast votes in places like Ohio. Maybe the early-vote turnout effort just got off to a slow start.