I talked to one of my Virginia politics guys, who in the past has expressed nagging doubts that Republicans had grown complacent in recent campaigns.

He says that in his part of the state, people really don’t seem to think that a 20-year-old college thesis is a big deal. But he expects more in this vein; he’s hearing the Deeds campaign has some sort of follow-up attack, apparently something delicate because it deals with Bob McDonnell’s family. He didn’t have any details. He did add, however, that “voters don’t like bullies. If Deeds looks like he’s being too negative, it will backfire.”

This figure is of the opinion that the GOP candidate for attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli, “is going to win and he has an incredible grassroots network, which ought to benefit McDonnell.” There has been less polling for the AG race, but most have Cuccinelli up by a healthy margin. (One exception was that odd Clarus poll, which had 35 percent undecided.)