Fascinating: Asked, “if the election for your Member of Congress were held today, would you likely vote to re-elect Phil Hare?,” only 39.5 percent of respondents in Illinois’s 17th congressional district said “yes,” and 47 percent said “no.” This is a traditionally modestly Democratic district, where Obama carried 56 percent of the vote in 2008.

This is not a seat that has been on most analysts’ lists of likely competitive races . . .