Michael Barone runs the numbers and comes up with the perfect mess for the Democrats when all the primaries and caucuses have voted: Barack Obama wins the delegates, but Hillary Clinton actually wins the popular vote.

One or two Obama fans are still arguing with my piece from last week that their man is falling flat on already tough territory in Pennsylvania. We will see; ARG shows little movement from the beginning of March (pre-Jeremiah Wright).

But Barone’s projection of the Keystone State looks at the same factor I was looking at — demographics:

I have her carrying Pennsylvania by 20 percent–a 60 percent to 40 percent margin of the two-candidate (Clinton and Obama) vote. That’s better than she did in Ohio, where she won 55 percent of the two-candidate vote. But her showings there in the 6th congressional district (70 percent to 27 percent), the 17th congressional district (63 percent to 35 percent) and the 18th congressional district (66 percent to 31 percent) have influenced me; those areas are a lot like most of western and central Pennsylvania, where you also find very few blacks and upscale whites. Those results have also influenced my projections of even bigger percentage margins for Clinton in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky.