A few days ago, a reader in Massa’s district gave me his sense on how the race to fill the seat will shake out:

The Democrats are likely to approach Monroe County (Rochester) DA Mike Green, who would be trouble for the GOP if he runs. He’s extremely popular and competent, though highly charisma challenged. Great DA, but nobody is studying the crease in his pants leg. Doubt he’ll run . . . Just don’t see any Democrat of note getting involved in this climate, and this is as red a district as it gets in New York.
Kuhl is out there still . . . He only narrowly lost to Massa in a rematch last time in the general anti-GOP wave. With as bad as the Dems are in NY these days, he’ll probably win easily this time, warts and all . . . Monroe Co. Exec Maggie Brooks (R) probably won’t run . . . What’s left is mostly small-town mayors or a random assemblymen.
My money’s on Kuhl winning it back in a special election, for better or worse, over a no-name Dem, then getting re-elected easily in November.

District Attorney Mike Green announced he’s not running for the seat.

Of course, Corning mayor Tom Reed was already running for Massa’s seat, and would seem to have a head start in any special election. Local Republicans are lining up behind him, so a bid by Brooks seems less likely . . .