Team McCain is trying to convince me Romney’s numbers are soft, and that if his advertising were as effective as his team thinks it is, he should be running away with all of the early states by a wide margin. ”He’s shattered the record on advertising to this point.” They see their guy… well, they’ll never concede Iowa, but they see their guy winning New Hampshire, winning Michigan (still scheduled for Jan. 15) and winning South Carolina.

They’re also eagerly pointing out that now quite a few national polls have their man in second place ahead of Thompson.

My response is, yup. And it’s a nice comeback from his troubles earlier in the year, although some of us were never bought into the concept of the McCain Death Watch. But right now, he’s still in the high teens, and Thompson’s in the teens. Today’s Fox News poll is the first to give McCain any real margin over Thompson (five percent) and both of ‘em are pretty far behind Giuliani, who’s strikingly consistent in the 25 to 33 percent range. One could theorize that most poll shifts we’ve seen have been bits of the anti-Rudy vote shifting from one alternative to another. When somebody’s within striking distance of the frontrunner, I’ll really sit up and take notice.