I echo Moe Lane’s caveats, but I’m pleasantly stunned by this bit of news:

– The Matthew Berry for Congress campaign has released an internal poll conducted by the Tarrance Group showing that incumbent Congressman Jim Moran is clearly vulnerable heading into the 2010 election and that Matthew Berry is well-positioned to capitalize on Moran’s weakness.
While likely general election voters in Virginia’s 8th Congressional District prefer a generic Democrat to a generic Republican by a margin of 56% to 32%, they nevertheless believe that Jim Moran does not deserve reelection. Specifically, only 38% of likely voters believe that incumbent Jim Moran deserves to be reelected in November while the plurality of likely voters, 40%, believe that it is time to give someone new a chance. The remaining 23% are unable to say that Moran should be sent back to Congress, but say who they will vote for depends on his opponent in November.
The poll also reveals that Matthew Berry is the Republican candidate who can beat Jim Moran. When Matthew Berry’s background and experience are described to voters as well as Moran’s experience and record, the race is within the margin of error: 41% for Matthew Berry and 44% for incumbent Jim Moran, with a significant 16% remaining undecided.
When asked for comment, Kristopher Morris, Campaign Manager for Matthew Berry for Congress, made the following statement:
“This poll shows that voters are quickly tiring of Jim Moran, his ongoing abuse of his office, and his litany of offensive statements. Once they get past the surface of partisan identity and look at who Congressman Moran is, they realize that they do not want him representing us in Washington. The poll also shows that Matthew Berry is the Republican candidate who can defeat Jim Moran by winning the independent vote and attracting the support of Democrats who believe it is time for Jim Moran to go.”

Keep in mind that in November, Creigh Deeds won this district with 61 percent to Bob McDonnell’s 38 percent. So even under good electoral circumstances, this is a tough, tough seat for the GOP to win. But over his long career, Moran’s given a lot of Democrats a lot of good reasons to tire of him.