There’s been a pretty sensible conventional wisdom surrounding the Massachusetts Senate race, and it goes something like this: Polls showing a close race will wake up lethargic and complacent Democrats, get the local party machines going, and stir up the get-out-the-vote activities, and in the end, Martha Coakley will do just fine.

And on paper, that makes sense. Except the Rasmussen poll showing Brown within nine was supposed to be a wake-up call, and that poll was completed January 4. Then there was the PPP poll that actually put Brown up by 1 percentage point, completed January 9. Then two days later, there was another Rasmussen poll, showing Brown within 2 percentage points.

Now the poll out last night puts Brown up by 4. For eleven days or so, there have been rumblings of, “Hey, this race is looking close and Brown might just win this thing.”

If this is a wake-up call, it’s not clear that any Democrats are answering. In fact, as Brown gains and Coakley stumbles, I wonder if folks who ordinarily would never vote for Brown are becoming more tempted, as he looks like a winner (or at least a possible winner) and it seems like “everyone” else likes him, too.