What I’m mildly encouraged by:

  • Rasmussen’s tracking poll puts Obama ahead by 3 percent.
  • The Battleground poll puts Obama ahead by 3 percent.
  • Zogby puts Obama ahead by 5 precent.
  • Early voting in Colorado is nearly tied between registed Republicans and registered Democrats.
  • The amount of undecideds, in an environment where the Democrats have enormous advantages. If months and months of the media and Obama advertising (I know, redundant) telling you “This is the greatest guy ever” can’t nudge you from undecided, you just don’t want to vote for the guy and don’t want to say so.

What I’m happy to hear, but am not putting too much stock in:

  • Comments from a McCain campaign source that their man is running 6 percent ahead of where Bush was in key parts of Ohio, that Obama is running behind Kerry in key parts of Pennsylvania, that McCain surging in Minnesota and Michigan, Sununu back up in NH, Coleman tied in Minnesota, the race is tied in Iowa, McCain safe in Florida and Colorado, and Obama’s team is worried that his lead Virginia isn’t as solid as the polls would make it appear.
  • More Republicans have shown up for early voting than Democrats in California.
  • A sudden surge in McCain advertising in swing states. I’m not sure the waverers are going to decide based on a commercial in the final week.

What I am amused by, but don’t put too much stock in:

  • A HillBuzz post suggesting we may soon hear “audiotapes we’ve been told repeatedly exist of Obama campaigning with Cousin Odinga in Kenya back in 2006, where Obama agrees with Odinga’s anti-American sentiments and says the American national anthem is a racist, violent war song and must be replaced with something passive, peaceful and wholly secular” and that the L.A. Times videotape (presumably) will confirm “Obama’s presence at a 2003 dinner where Palestinian Rhashid Khalidi was honored, amongst frequent calls for the immediate destruction of the state of Israel. Obama and Michelle attended this hatefest, smiling throughout, with reports of Bernadine Dohrn and William Ayers in attendance (and possibly sharing a table with the Obamas).”
  • The argument that McCain is in danger of losing Arizona.

What I’m not worried about:

  • Sarah Palin returning to vote in her home state on Monday night. By that late hour, what is done is done; I’m not sure one last late-night rally will make much difference.
  • Obama’s half-hour all-networks-but-ABC message tonight. Americans have had relentless coverage of the candidates for months now. Those who like him are already sold; those who oppose him won’t be won over; those who are wavering aren’t looking for a 30-minute infomercial. Recall that the vice-presidential debate outdrew the presidential debates. Very few Americans want to see more about these guys right now. I suspect the dominant reaction will be, “Let the baseball game get started, already.”

What I’m worried about:

  • The makeup of early voters in Georgia and North Carolina. In Georgia, 1.38 million votes have cast ballots so far, and 35.2 percent of them are African-American, only a slight decrease from 35.6 last week, when about a half-million fewer votes had been cast. In North Carolina, 1.62 million voters have cast ballots so far, 27.6 percent of them African-American. That’s a drop from last week’s 29 percent.
  • Not hearing about the get-every-voter-even-in-deep-blue-precincts tactics from the McCain campaign the way I heard about the Bush campaign effort in 2004.
  • Not knowing what the stock market will do Monday.