Lord knows I don’t agree with Jerome Armstrong on much, but I pay attention to his analysis of the Democratic primary. A lot of what he writes today seems to ring true: In the past six months, we’ve seen that Barack Obama a really talented, charismatic politician who would easily lead a field that didn’t include Hillary Rodham Clinton. But we haven’t seen anything that suggests he’ll overtake her, or have some compelling, ironclad argument as to why Democrats should nominate him instead of her.

Armstrong:

[Obama’s] campaign really doesn’t know what a movement is made up of and are fumbling in the dark amidst their media-created momentum (which is getting primed to turn on its creation). And who’s got Obama’s back when the media does turns on its creation? The netroots doesn’t; he’s never aligned with the existing movement that began with Dean in ‘02, swelled for Wesley Clark in ‘03, led Dean to the DNC Chair and propelled the Hackett and Lamont candidacies, leading to the surge of activists voting for Democrats in ‘06…
…[Obama’s campaign] looks like a better-than-ordinary campaign for a candidate that’s personally compelling, and not much more. It is not a movement, but a candidate. It’s about Obama, and nothing more. He’s got numbers in the same way that Coke or Pepsi have consumers; supporters in the same way that Bono and the Dixie Chicks have fans. But this is partisan politics, and Obama will not survive the rightwing machine’s onslaught without a strategy that includes internet partisanship…
…Enjoy the 2nd quarter push for cash, it’s the only part of the Obama movement that’s real…
Obama’s running a well-funded, traditional presidential campaign that’s safely pointed toward finishing a strong second based on his personal appeal. I can see Obama getting a lot of points in the game, but never the lead.
…Edwards could still win the nomination, but it looks like a real longshot now, and the fading in the polls nationally is not a good omen. He needed to run a perfect campaign, with no self-induced mistakes, and it’s not been that way at all. The haircut, hedgefund, and house as a trifecta of rightwing ammo has hurt his credibility on the signature issue of poverty.

Things can change, of course, but if I were challenging Hillary, I wouldn’t want my strategy to rely on her making a mistake.