The numbers had been heading in this direction for a while, but it’s still surprising:

According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine edges Republican challenger Chris Christie 44 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the race for New Jersey governor. Another 4 percent volunteer they will vote for independent Chris Daggett and 5 percent say they are undecided. “With the start of an advertising blitz and the raw exposure of the debate, the race has tightened to a dead heat,” said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll.

There’s something rather interesting about this result, in that Corzine’s job approval and favorable/unfavorable numbers have barely budged.

Is it possible for a Democratic incumbent to win when 68 percent of voters think the state is on the wrong track, 54 percent have an unfavorable impression of him, only 37 percent have a favorable impression, independents split 52 percent to 30 percent in favor of the Republican, only 31 percent describe him as “honest and trustworthy,” only 34 percent say he “understands the concerns of the average person,” and only 38 percent approve of the job he’s done as governor?

The message from the voters in this poll seems to be, “He stinks. Let’s reelect him.”

UPDATE: Christie-Guadagno campaign manager Bill Stepien released the following statement on the Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll:

Poll after poll has found that over half of New Jerseyans are sick and tired of Jon Corzine’s high taxes, irresponsible spending and job killing policies. While Jon Corzine has out spent us by millions with his own Wall Street money with nasty, negative advertising for months, he has little to show for it because no amount of mudslinging will erase the fact that struggling families pay the highest taxes, not to mention highest property taxes in the country. New Jerseyans know Jon Corzine will keep raising taxes which is why they know its time for a change.