The campaign of Republican challenger Greg Ball, running in New York’s 19th congressional district, e-mails, touting a poll they commissioned:

Tuesday’s Roll Call reports that a poll conducted for Greg’s campaign by Vitale and Associates on Oct. 21-22 shows Greg trailing the incumbent [Democrat John Hall] by only 5 points, 48%-43% one year out from the election. Importantly, Greg wins independents 48%-38% in a district that Obama only won 51%-48% in 2008. Greg’s name ID across the Congressional district is 68% while his current primary challenger, is only 11%.

Obviously, readers are entitled to take campaign-commissioned polls with a grain of salt; having said that, a dramatic swing among independents seems pretty plausible considering what we’ve seen in Virginia and New Jersey.