Leave it to Politico to look at one special House election and declare that the argument about the size of government has fundamentally changed:

The battle over the federal deficit hasn’t flipped in favor of the Democrats. The GOP isn’t suddenly at grave risk of losing its House majority.
But after two years of getting pummeled over spending and the size of government, Democrats now appear to have found a political weapon that’s capable of evening out the fight: Medicare.
The popular entitlement program wasn’t the sole issue behind Kathy Hochul’s upset victory in a New York special election Tuesday night, but strategists in both parties say it was an important force. And for the first time since November, the idea that Democrats might have a shot at winning back the House is no longer a laughing matter.

Except that “Medicare” and “the size of government” are not synonyms.

A Pew Research survey from earlier this month:

The public continues to favor smaller government and remains critical of government performance. However, some of the anger at government that was evident during the 2010 election campaign has subsided. Overall, 50% say they want a smaller government providing fewer services, while 42% say they would rather have a bigger government providing more services. A majority (55%) also says the government is almost always wasteful and inefficient, compared with 39% who think that government often does a better job than people give it credit for.

Pew also broke the parties into different demographic groups, and found one subgroup of Democrats that seems at least partially receptive to a smaller-government message:

In stark contrast to these other groups, about two-thirds of Hard-Pressed Democrats (68%) say the government is wasteful, and while a slim majority favors a bigger government (53%), they are more divided about government’s size than their co-partisans.” Pew said “Hard-Pressed Democrats” constituted 15 percent of registered voters and that were “largely blue collar, struggling financially, critical of both business and government. View immigrants as an economic burden and a cultural threat. Supportive of environmental protection in general but concerned about the economic impact of environmental laws and regulations.

I think “Hard-Pressed Democrats” is another name for the group Henry Olsen is discussing in the Corner:

As I’ve written before, blue-collar voters react differently to issues than the GOP base does. They are more supportive of safety-net programs at the same time as they are strongly opposed to large government programs in general. These voters crave stability and are uncertain of their ability to compete in a globalized economy that values higher education more each year. They are also susceptible to the age-old Democratic argument that the secret Republican agenda is to eviscerate middle-class entitlements to fund tax cuts for the wealthy. The truth is, if conservatives and Republicans are to move forward with entitlement reform (as they should), they need to address the real concerns of these pivotal voters. Eric Cantor’s recent statements that Ryan’s plan is the only way to protect Medicare is a step in the right direction, because the truth is that the president’s plan does not ensure that Medicare will remain strong in the face of gigantic budget deficits as far as the eye can see. And to the extent that he does offer a solution, it’s in the form of bureaucratic and political price setting — a rationing of care via the unelected IPAB and CMS bureaucrats. Blue-collar whites do not trust government generally; they certainly will not like that.

As long as the American public believes that Medicare is fine and no change is needed, the Democrats will thrive with their scare tactics. There is much work to be done:

In the [AP] poll, 54 percent said it’s possible to balance the budget without cutting spending for Medicare, and 59 percent said the same about Social Security. Taking both programs together, 48 percent said the government could balance the budget without cutting either one. Democrats and political independents were far more likely than Republicans to say that neither program will have to be cut.