Periodically I’ve mentioned my theory/prediction that if Hillary gets the Democratic nomination, she won’t pick Barack Obama as her running mate.

If Hillary gets the Democratic nomination, she will be the first woman to head a major party’s ticket, the first former first lady, etc. She herself will respresent change, boldness, risk, something new and untried before, etc. Picking an African-American, or another woman would represent even more boldness/risk, and Hillary will already have enough of that. What Hillary will need in a running mate will be stability, reassurance, trust, experience, etc.

With the country certain to still be fighting a war on terror come 2008, I had wondered if she would look for a retired general type – Anthony Zinni, John Shalikashvili, maybe even a figure not seen as a Democratic partisan, like Ret. Gen. Barry McCaffrey. The implicit message: “The grown-ups are back in charge.”

Having watched Virginia Sen. Jim Webb a bit in this immigration debate, I now wonder if Webb would make an intriguing choice. Yes, he’s a bit of a hothead, who has aides carry his gun into the U.S. Capitol. Yes, he has weird stuff in his books. Yes, he will only have been a senator for a year and change when Hillary needs to make her choice. But the Democratic electorate is strongly considering a four-year senator (Obama) and a one-term senator (Edwards). And Webb brings at least some relevant leadership experience from his years in the Marine Corps and his brief tenures as Assistant Secretary of Defense and Secretary of the Navy.

And he instantly cements the netroots to Hillary. And maybe he puts Virginia in play.

UPDATE: I’m told Shalikashvili was born in Poland. Doh! He’ll need an “Arnold Amendment.”