The new survey from Siena Research doesn’t indicate that there’s any serious shot that a Republican could win New York in 2012. But boy, do Obama’s numbers look lousy there, in what ought to be one of his strongholds:

While voters are evenly divided, 47-47 percent, on whether they are prepared to re-elect President Obama or would prefer ‘someone else,’ he continues to maintain 20-point leads over the frontrunners for the Republican presidential nomination, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. A slim majority continues to have a favorable view of Obama and a plurality of voters views Romney and Perry unfavorably, according to a new Siena College Research Institute poll of registered voters released today.
More than half of New Yorkers are very concerned that there will be a ‘double-dip’ recession and 84 percent are at least somewhat concerned. While 33 percent of voters would like to see Congress pass Obama’s American Jobs Act, compared to 19 percent who oppose it, a plurality of voters, 47 percent, say they need more information.
. . . Voters were nearly evenly divided on the statement that while “he was a great candidate, right now Barack Obama is a poor President,” with 47 percent agreeing with that statement and 49 percent disagreeing.

Again, neither Romney nor Perry looks particularly strong there. But a weak showing by Obama in a state with about 10.6 million active registered voters could have a big impact on the popular vote — as well as all of those reelection bids by GOP House freshmen from New York.

For perspective, Obama beat John McCain by 9,522,083 votes in 2008, and 18.7 percent of that margin, 1,787,026 votes, came from New York.

UPDATE: Johnny Shop sees a vacuum and fills it: