This was on my list of 99 potentially competitive seats, but I hadn’t considered Rep. Dan Maffei, New York Democrat, to be seriously vulnerable this cycle. But I think Republican (and Conservative and Independence line) challenger Ann Marie Buerkle is now demonstrating we have to keep an eye on this race.

Her campaign reports:

A July 26th-27th survey of likely NY-25 voters shows Buerkle only nine percentage points away from Maffei in a head-to-head matchup, with 37 percent for Buerkle, 46 percent for Maffei, and 17 percent undecided. Among respondents who have heard of both candidates, it is a statistical dead heat with 42 percent for Buerkle, 43 percent for Maffei, and 15 percent undecided. Among those with a set opinion of both candidates, Buerkle leads by ten percentage points, 50 percent for Buerkle to 40 percent for Maffei with 10 percent undecided.

Keep in mind, Maffei won this district 55 percent to 42 percent in 2008. If Buerkle gets her name ID up, this will turn into a real race.

They add:

Most alarming for the well-funded incumbent, only 26 percent of respondents say Maffei deserves reelection. Further, Maffei’s favorable ratings remain stuck at 49 percent, with 28 percent unfavorable, after nineteen months in office. By contrast, Buerkle’s favorables have climbed to 25 percent, with unfavorables less than 9 percent, since entering the race in January.

New York State–based McLaughlin & Associates conducted the poll.