Over on the home page, I take a look at Barack Obama’s efforts in Pennsylvania. His team has been making an effort in getting independents and whatever “Obamacans” remain registered as Democrats; but overall, the sense is that the message is falling flat.

Obviously, I’d recommend you read the whole thing — but two points that raised my eyebrows. One, it’s not unthinkable that out of 67 counties in Pennsylvania, Obama could end up winning… one. He’ll win Philadelphia, but Pittsburgh’s Democrats are not his ideal kind of Democrats. Maybe Obama will win the county that includes Penn State University, and maybe some of the Philly suburbs will be close. But most of the Democrats in the rest of the state are white, Catholic, elderly, union members, working class — all the demographics that elude Obama’s appeal.

Second, in a state with all of those key demographics, why is Obama touting himself as a political reformer who passed tough ethics laws? If Obama loses in Pennsylvania by a wide margin, the crisis won’t be the loss itself; it will be the revelation that Obama still couldn’t figure out how to appeal to those demographics, even with six weeks to prepare, in one state.