Rep. John Shadegg, Republican of Arizona, is retiring at the end of this Congress. He represents a district with a Partisan Voting Index score of R+9. In 2008, local guy John McCain took 56 percent of the vote here.

Democrats have had some success in Arizona House races in recent years, and we’ll have to see who they (and the GOP) can recruit for an open-seat race. But considering the partisan makeup of the district, and the kind of year it’s turning out to be, this is probably going to be a tough seat for a Democrat to pick up.

In fact, if you’re a Republican who’s contemplating retirement, this is probably a better year to do it than, say, 2012, where Obama, presumably running for reelection, will boost Democratic turnout . . .