After talking to some New Jersey Republicans, I can report that they’re by no means gloomy about the chances of their gubernatorial candidate, Chris Christie. They know the race has gone from a near-certain win to a very competitive race, but they think their guy will come out on top, for a few reasons.

First, they note that everybody in New Jersey knows what they think of incumbent governor Jon Corzine, and they generally don’t like him, don’t approve of the job he’s doing, and don’t want to see him back. They note that there is still a chunk of the electorate – perhaps 20 percent – that is still making up their mind on what they think of Christie.

They know you can’t win a spending race with multimillionaire Corzine, but their advertising blitz started four weeks out and will accelerate in the final weeks, particularly in the supremely expensive New York City and Philadelphia television advertising. They estimate that Corzine has dumped $19 million in television, radio, and Internet ads on Christie in recent weeks. For all that spending, Corzine made a lot of progress, but perhaps not enough. In August, Christie led by double digits; today Rasmussen puts him up 4 percent; recently PPP puts Christie up 1, Quinnipiac puts him up 1, Survey USA puts him up 3. In other words, Corzine’s barrage has driven Christie’s support down a considerable amount, but not quite enough to put Corzine ahead. Meanwhile, Corzine continues to draw 41 percent, 39 percent, 40 percent, 35 percent, 38 percent – miserable numbers for an incumbent.

New Jersey Republicans also think that the state has seen the crest of the Christopher Daggett wave.

As on Republican put it: “When a pollster calls you up, it’s easy to say you like an independent who’s way behind. It’s a bit harder to pull the trigger when you’re in the voting booth, and when you know the winner is going be one of the two major-party candidates. Beyond that, to get anything done, the next governor’s going to need some allies somewhere, and Daggett will have none.” They expect on Election Day Daggett carries around 6 or 7 percent, which would leave Corzine needing about 47 to win, a figure they put at just about insurmountable.

Beyond the top-line races, they’re optimistic about gains in the state assembly. They’re not worried about any of their incumbents, and know they’ll gain ground, but not how much. They would need to flip 9 seats to pick up control of the chamber, a scenario that appeared not-unthinkable when Christie was well ahead. Without a wave, it looks harder – but they note that third-party assembly candidates are few and far between, meaning the state’s fed-up voters will have only one non-incumbent option.

Asked if they were voting Republican or Democrat in the state-assembly races this year, the GOP led, 41 percent to 35 percent — in a sample that was 40 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican.