I had said that if Scott Brown won, every race in 2010 would shift one notch to the right on the prediction scales – “strong Democrat” would become “lean Democrat,” seats classified “lean Democrat” would become “toss up,” and so on.

I exaggerated, but not by much: Stu Rothenberg writes today:

We are adding a dozen new seats to our list of districts “in play” – all of them currently held by Democrats. In addition, we have moved 16 districts within our list – two held by the GOP and the rest currently represented by a Democrat. All of the moves benefit the GOP, either because Republican districts now look safer or Democratic districts appear more vulnerable.

He adds:

In addition, we can no longer dismiss the possibility of a Republican wave so large that Democrats could lose their House majority. We stress, however, that we currently expect Republicans to fall short of the 40 seats they would need. Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts doesn’t mean that every Republican candidate will win in November.

No, not every candidate.