The Illinois primaries occur on February 2; insert “Groundhog Day” jokes here.

On the Republican side, there’s been some discussion of a serious challenge from the right to Rep. Mark Kirk, widely considered the frontrunner for the nomination and a strong competitor in the 2010 general election. I say “discussion,” because the evidence is iffy.

P.R. folks backing Patrick Hughes sent this notice my way this morning:

The Patrick Hughes for U.S. Senate campaign recently did a snapshot survey of 1,104 statewide likely Republican primary voters on January 21st and 22nd. The data shows a massive jump in support for Patrick Hughes over the last few weeks and a minimal amount of movement in the number of Mark Kirk supporters. While being aggressively outspent by the Kirk campaign, Hughes’ campaign has managed to cut Kirk’s December Chicago Tribune Poll lead in half and caused his support to stall. Furthermore, the support that Mark Kirk does have is very weak.
· 21% of likely primary voters strongly or moderately support Hughes
· 15% of likely primary voters strongly or moderately support Kirk
· 27% of likely primary voters are undecided
· 32% of likely primary voters are leaning towards a candidate
This data set shows that Illinois Republican primary voters respond very positively to Patrick Hughes’ message of Conservative values; when voters hear his message they more likely to strongly support his candidacy than the candidacy of other individuals in the race, including Mark Kirk. It also shows that while we are almost one week away from the primary 59% of likely voters remain undecided or swayable on the race.
In early December the Chicago Tribune released a poll showing Mark Kirk at 41% and Patrick Hughes at 3%. Despite being outspent considerably in the weeks following, the Hughes campaign has managed to jump 19% while Mark Kirk has not moved. Voters are not engaged by his message of moderate to liberal Republican values and his supporters are not committed to supporting him. Voters are looking for another option because they want a Conservative option.

A jump in the polls is good news for Hughes, and he appears to be emerging as the most serious alternative to Kirk. But I’m always a little skeptical of polls commissioned by candidates, and today a new Chicago Tribune poll doesn’t see the race as all that competitive:

On the Republican side, Kirk, a five-term North Shore congressman, holds a commanding advantage over Hinsdale businessman Patrick Hughes, 47 percent to 8 percent. None of the four other contenders in the GOP race — Kathleen Thomas, Don Lowery, John Arrington or Andy Martin — had more than 3 percent.

Could Hughes win? In a world where Scott Brown is a senator, we can’t count anything out. But I wonder if a vote for a cap-and-trade bill that looks dead, along with deviation from conservative orthodoxy on a few other issues, will be enough to surmount a lead that is, even by the Hughes poll, almost 20 percentage points. (It also doesn’t help to have four other candidates on the ballot, each one touting themselves as “the real conservative alternative.”)

Since 2000, Kirk has represented a pretty Democratic-leaning district and has always been a top target of Democrats. Any GOP candidate who survived the Obama onslaught in Illinois in 2008 has got some campaigning skills.