In 2006, California Democrat Rep. Dennis Cardoza won 65 percent of the vote. In 2008, Cardoza ran unopposed.

In 2010, Republican Mike Berryhill is within 6 of him.

In an election for US House of Representatives from California’s 18th Congressional District today, 10/07/10, 3 days after early voting began and 25 days until votes are counted, incumbent Democrat Dennis Cardoza has a narrow advantage over well-known Republican challenger Mike Berryhill, 50% to 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish, for KFSN-TV in Fresno.
White voters break 5:4 Republican. Hispanic voters break 3:1 Democrat. The percentage of the electorate that is Hispanic, here estimated at 23%, will determine the size of Cardoza’s margin.

Elsewhere in California, I am hearing that a new SurveyUSA poll shows Republican David Harmer… leading incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney. You’ll hear more as I hear it.

UPDATE: Wow!

In an election for US House of Representatives in California’s 11th congressional district today, 10/12/10, Republican David Harmer edges incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney 48% to 42%, according to this latest exclusive KPIX-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Among men, Harmer leads by 20 points; among women, McNerney leads by 6 — a 26-point gender gap. Harmer has a bubble of support among voters age 35 to 49; the candidates are effectively even among older voters. Harmer, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Congress in Utah’s 2nd District in 1996 and in California’s neighboring 10th Congressional District in a special election last year, takes 8 of 10 Republican votes. McNerney, who is seeking a third term, takes 8 of 10 Democratic votes. Independents break 5:3 for the Republican.