If Clarus is right, the Virginia governor’s race has tightened, with McDonnell leading Deeds by only 5 percentage points.

Having said that, I’m less than fully confident after reading this comment from Clarus Research Group President Ron Faucheux, formerly the editor of Campaigns & Elections magazine:

A big factor in this election will be Election Day turnout, especially by race,” said Faucheux. “If African American turnout approaches the 2008 presidential election levels, it would be a major boost to Deeds’ chances.”

No kidding. And how often does turnout in an off-off year election match that of a presidential race?