Gallup’s finding in this poll is so surprising and counterintuitive, I wonder if it is correct: “Gallup finds 13 percent of registered voters saying they will vote for president for the first time in 2008. That matches the figure Gallup found in its final 2004 pre-election poll.”

Then take a look at this:

The estimate of first-time voters is slightly lower, 11%, using Gallup’s expanded likely voter model. Under this model, Americans who are registered to vote, who say they plan to vote, who indicate they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the election, and who rate their chances of voting as a “9″ or “10″ on a 10-point scale are deemed likely to vote. Gallup’s traditional likely voter model takes into account past voting behavior as well as current voting intentions, but because it adjusts for voters who were too young to vote in past elections, it still estimates that 8% of likely voters will be voting for the first time.

If accurate, the number of people Gallup reached who do not intend to vote in this election has increased from 2 percent to 4 percent.