Looking over the upcoming special House elections, and how they could affect the oh-so-close vote on health care in that chamber, I’m beginning to think President Obama is a fool. (I can hear it now: “You’re just thinking that now?”)

On April 13, residents of Florida’s 19th congressional district fill the seat left empty by the retirement of Robert Wexler, and will pick either Democrat Ted Deutch or Republican Ed Lynch. It’s a very Democratic district; it’s normally rated D+15, and about 28,000 voted in this year’s Democratic primary while only about 10,000 voted in the Republican primary. Obviously, in The Year of Scott Brown, no Republican should be counted out, and the low turnout of a special election will make it a bit easier, but there’s still a good chance that Pelosi will have one more “yes” vote by late April.

In Pennsylvania, for the seat in the 12th district that Murtha occupied, we’ll have to see how the party selection process works out. Some Democrat will face either Tim Burns or Bill Russell; the general election for the remainder of Murtha’s term is held on the same day as the primary, May 18. (It’s not unthinkable that either Burns or Russell could win the special and lose the primary.) It’s a pretty Democratic district, although whoever the Democrats nominate won’t have Murtha’s huge advantages of incumbency, name ID, etc. However, you would have to estimate that the Democrats have at least a 50-50 shot of holding this seat.

While I like the odds of Charles Djou winning the special election for Hawaii’s 1st district – he’s running against two Democrats, and whoever wins the largest share of the vote wins – it’s still Obama’s “home district” in a sense. The primary is May 22.

(There will also be a special election in Nathan Deal’s district in Georgia; the date will be set when Deal’s resignation is official. But this is a heavily GOP district and Deal is a “no” vote, so this most likely replaces a “no” vote with another “no” vote.)

In other words, it’s entirely possible Obama could have an extra three votes if he put off the health-care vote until late May or later.

Of course, if Lynch, Burns/Russell, or Djou win, that adds some new “no” votes.

I guess Obama’s not in a gambling mood.