One of the trusted GOP consultants I talk to, on the Democrats’ $50 million get-out-the-Obama-vote plan: “This is not going to work. The most expensive thing in politics is to get people who don’t give a [darn] to care. And right now, the people who elected Barack Obama don’t give a [darn] about a bunch of Washington politicians they thought he was going to run out of town.”
He suggests an angle I didn’t have room to explore in my piece today. Obama’s voters in 2008 were driven by a perfect storm of factors that simply aren’t transferable to the average Democratic congressional candidate.
He made history. You can only elect the first African-American president once. Showing up and voting for Michael Bennet or Alexi Giannoulias or Richard Blumenthal just doesn’t have the same sense of excitement or momentousness. (Maybe Floridians can make history by electing their first orange senator.)
He was young. Notice the incumbents who are falling in primaries this year: Arlen Specter, Bob Bennett, Allan Mollohan — old guys who have been around for quite a few terms. Hey, kids, let’s head out and knock on doors for the voices of our generation: Paul Kanjorski, John Spratt, Allen Boyd, Phil Hare, Leonard Boswell, Ike Skelton, and that famous friend of American youth, Bob Etheridge!
He was new. He contrasted with Bush, a term-limited incumbent whom Americans had soured on years earlier; both his main primary opponent (Hillary Clinton) and his general-election opponent (John McCain) had been prominent figures in national politics since at least the mid-1990s. The public is yearning for new blood, some vigor; they’re willing to try untested rookies over the old familiar faces that seem to have run out of gas. Good luck getting Americans enthused about another six years of Barbara Boxer, Blanche Lincoln, Harry Reid, Patty Murray . . .
He had no record to answer for; his campaign was all promise. Every incumbent will essentially be arguing in October either A) yes, life has been rough lately, but it’s getting a little bit better right now, or B) yes, life has been rough lately, and it’s not my fault. A Republican incumbent can at least argue that his ideas and agenda haven’t had a chance or even a fair hearing. The Democrats appear to want to campaign as if Republicans are the party in power, and I don’t think the voters will buy that. Brad Ellsworth is running on the slogan, “Send a sheriff to Washington,” trying to get Indiana voters forget he was elected to Congress in 2006.
Right now, not even the Barack Obama of 2010 is the Barack Obama of 2008. The idea that his magic charisma that’s long past its expiration date can just rub off on the likes of Earl Pomeroy or Frank Kratovil or Suzanne Kosmas is pretty laughable.






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