I’m being warned to expect some tightening in the numbers of Virginia’s governor’s race. Folks in the state who follow these things closely note that recent cycles haven’t seen big blowouts in Virginia’s governor’s races. In 2005, Tim Kaine won by about five and a half percent, and in 2001, Mark Warner won by about five percent.

Of course, that’s recent history; in 1997 Jim Gilmore beat Don Beyer 55 percent to 42 percent, and in 1993, George Allen crushed Mary Sue Terry, 58 percent to 41 percent.

For most of this year, Creigh Deeds has put up some pretty “meh” numbers within his Democratic base; it is plausible that some grassroots Democrats who tuned out of the governor’s race will wake up and decide to vote in the coming weeks. And while the Washington Post endorsement surprises no one who has followed this race at all, it’s possible that the endorsement might nudge some northern Virginians who were initially unimpressed with Deeds. Every big-name Democrat will go into heavily Democratic communities and beat the drum for Deeds.

On the other hand, this is a race in which there is a good Republican candidate up against a bad Democrat candidate, at a time when the public is worried about the economy and witnessing runaway spending in Washington. The incumbent Democrat is not popular, unemployment is high, traffic is bad, and one of the guys is obsessed with talking about a graduate thesis from 20 years ago. The ingredients are there for a big, big win; I think any serious narrowing of this race would be a disappointment to Republicans.