On the menu today: Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin calls up the Russian minister of defense, Sergei Shoigu, and tells him to get his pilots in line; the Biden administration appears increasingly open to a full-scale ban of TikTok; and an extensive analysis of the single most consequential news story of 2023 so far.
Grim Talk about the Reaper
Wonders of the age: You can now watch the video of the two Russian Su-27 aircraft dumping fuel onto the MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drone operating within international airspace over the Black Sea Tuesday.
Yesterday’s Jolt emphasized that as much as the actions of the Russian pilots might anger us, they should not surprise us, and we should be prepared for similar or even more aggressive moves in the future. NBC News reports that three U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence said the highest levels of the Kremlin approved the aggressive actions the Russian fighter jets against the drone. Because our drones are helping the Ukrainians target Russian forces, as far as Moscow is concerned, those drones are combatants. The Russian military may not be willing to come out and say that it’s deliberately targeting our drones as combatants, but its actions clearly illuminate its thinking.
Yesterday, Arkansas GOP senator Tom Cotton declared that the Pentagon should launch another drone on the exact same flight path to “make it clear we will not be intimidated from flying in that airspace.” That’s fine, but if we choose to do that, let’s have a very clear plan about what we’re willing to do if Russian fighter jets try to bring the next one down, too. Are we willing to fire upon Russian fighter jets if they try to take down one of our surveillance drones over international waters? Are we willing to accept the potential consequences of firing on Russian fighter jets?
Yesterday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke by phone with Russian minister of defense, Sergei Shoigu, regarding, as the Pentagon put it, “recent unprofessional, dangerous, and reckless behavior by the Russian air force in international airspace over the Black Sea,” and Austin “emphasized that the United States will continue to fly and to operate wherever international law allows.”
In a subsequent press conference, Austin and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, elaborated:
SEC. AUSTIN: . . . We take any potential for escalation very seriously and that’s why I believe it’s important to keep the lines of communication open. I think it’s really key that we’re able to pick up the phone and engage each other. And I think that that will help to prevent miscalculations going forward. . . .
GEN. MILLEY: . . . Was it intentional or not? Don’t know yet. We know that the intercept was intentional. We know that the aggressive behavior was intentional. We also know it was very unprofessional and very unsafe.
Austin’s statement that the phone call will help “prevent miscalculations going forward” sounds pretty optimistic to me, but maybe Shoigu could perceive, between the lines, from Austin that additional efforts to bring down U.S. surveillance drones in international airspace could prompt a kinetic response.
Milley, meanwhile, gave mixed signals on whether the U.S. would attempt to recover the wreckage of the drone:
We know where it landed in the Black Sea. It’s probably about maybe 4,000 or 5,000 feet of water, something like that. So, any recovery operation is very difficult at that depth by anyone. . . .
We don’t have any ships there, but we do have a lot of allies and friends in the area. We’ll work through recovery operations. That’s U.S. property and — and we’ll — we’ll leave it [at] that at this point, but it probably broke up. There’s probably not a lot to recover, frankly.”
Are TikTok’s Days Numbered?
Banning TikTok is not just some crazy right-wing Republican proposal anymore. As reported earlier this month, bipartisan desire to either ban it or completely separate TikTok from its Chinese owners is gaining stream. The Wall Street Journal reports:
The Biden administration is demanding that TikTok’s Chinese owners sell their stakes in the video-sharing app or face a possible U.S. ban of the app, according to people familiar with the matter.
The move represents a major shift in policy on the part of the administration, which has been under fire from some Republicans who say it hasn’t taken a tough enough stance to address the perceived security threat from TikTok, owned by Beijing-based ByteDance Ltd.
Our new guy, Noah Rothman, noticed that one of the impediments to a TikTok ban are Democratic elected officials who worry about alienating young voters who don’t care about either the app’s national-security implications or the amount of access to inappropriate sexual material it give to minors:
“A major unspoken problem for the president, according to political strategists, is that trying to force an outright ban on TikTok,” the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, “would sacrifice what is emerging as a vital campaign asset for Democrats with the 2024 election season looming.”
The Journal observed that users of this malicious application skew younger, and younger voters “typically favor Democrats by wide margins.” One unnamed Democratic consultant said it would be “politically insane” to ban TikTok and still expect to “turn out young voters.” Even Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, whose agency would be empowered to enforce a congressionally authorized ban, confessed that political considerations give her pause. “The politician in me thinks you’re gonna literally lose every voter under 35, forever,” she recently told Bloomberg.
To these concerns, the response should be, “So what?” Maybe younger voters will resent a TikTok ban, and maybe a percentage of them will take their frustrations out on Democratic politicians. Is that sufficient inducement to shirk the responsibilities associated with providing for the national defense against a hostile foreign power? Angry kids?
Look, to Democratic officials, national security is important, but not quite as important as keeping young voters happy.
The Single Most Consequential News Story of 2023 So Far
In 2022, the New York Jets started three different quarterbacks during the season, and none of them was particularly good. By one measure, out of the 68 quarterbacks who started a game in the 2022 season, the Jets’ quarterbacks ranked 42nd (Mike White), 51st (Joe Flacco), and 59th (Zach Wilson). Somehow, with quarterback play that ranged from pretty good but quickly injured (White) to abysmal (Flacco and Wilson), the Jets still managed to have a roaring start, winning seven of their first eleven games. And then bad quarterback play and injuries caught up with the team, and they lost the final six games of the season. They didn’t even score a touchdown in the final three games of the season.
The Jets’ rebuilding plans jumped ahead of schedule on the defense, with Quinnen Williams blossoming into the All-Pro player the Jets hoped for when they drafted him with the third overall pick in the 2019 draft. Rookie Sauce Gardner proved he could be a genuine shutdown corner, also making the All-Pro team. On the other side of the field, cornerback D. J. Reed made a strong case for the other Pro Bowl spot. Middle linebacker C. J. Mosley enjoyed a career rejuvenation, making the Pro Bowl, and Quinnen’s brother, linebacker Quincy Williams, turned into more than a cute story of siblings being teammates. With genuine talent at almost every spot, the Jets defense allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league.
On offense, running back Breece Hall looked like a strong candidate for offensive rookie of the year before a torn ACL shut him down for the season. But his teammate, wide receiver Garrett Wilson did win rookie of the year, only the third time in NFL history the offensive and defensive rookies of the year were on the same team.
The Jets’ success in the first two-thirds or so of last season demonstrate how far a team can go with strong defense, a solid running game, and some creative play calling covering for subpar — some games, severely subpar — play at the quarterback position. You can hide it for a while, but it is a quarterbacks’ league.
Yesterday, 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers confirmed he intends to play for the Jets next season. The Green Bay Packers and the Jets still need to nail down the details of the trade.
After a sterling career in Green Bay, Rodgers had a subpar year by his standards last year. He threw for “only” 3,695 yards; had a completion rate of 64.6 percent; made a good 26 touchdowns, but had an uncharacteristically high twelve interceptions. Some big questions looming over Rodgers are whether age is catching up with him, if last year was just an off year, or if Green Bay wanting to move on will give Rodgers, who never lacks a chip on his shoulder, additional motivation to turn in a great performance in 2023.
But even that subpar Rodgers of 2022 had about the same number of passing yards as the combined Jets quarterbacks, a completion rate eight to ten percentage points better than the Jets, twelve more passing touchdowns than the Jets’ quarterbacks combined, and three fewer interceptions.
If you give the current Jets team something akin to Rodgers’s MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021, they’re strong contenders for the Super Bowl. Even if you give the Jets something akin to Rodgers’s 2022 season, they’re probably good enough to get enough wins to gain at least that seventh spot in the AFC playoffs. And if Hall comes back from injury 100 percent — and key offensive linemen such as guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, tackle Mekhi Becton, and tackle Duane Brown can come back from injuries; guard Laken Tomlinson returns to his 2021 Pro Bowl standards; wide receiver Elijah Moore returns to his standout rookie form; and every other key player stays healthy — then the Jets should be not just a playoff team, but in the mix in the extremely competitive American Football Conference.
My God, did I just express hope? We’re doomed. You just know Rodgers will tear his ACL on the first snap in training camp.
ADDENDA: Over in that other Washington publication I write for, an examination of the not-yet-announced presidential candidacy of South Carolina senator Tim Scott, and how far a positive attitude, explicit yet ecumenical Christian faith, a lifetime in the third state in the primary schedule, and $$ can get you. Scott, by himself, is not likely to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. But if somebody else stumbles, he could be in the right place to make the most of that opportunity.
Thanks to Chuck Todd and the crew at Meet the Press Now for having me on yesterday to discuss Ron DeSantis’s comments on Ukraine.