On the menu today: Another blast of snow and cold weather will complicate the efforts of the GOP campaigns in the final days before the Iowa caucus. Also, we’ll look at the strange death of the Iowa Democratic caucus.
Iowa Freeze-Out
This just handed to me: Iowa is cold.
This is not your cue to jeer and say that East Coast correspondents can’t handle cold weather. It is objectively cold. Thursday night’s low was 16 degrees Fahrenheit; this morning, a blizzard warning is in effect and another five to ten inches of snow are projected to fall on Iowa. Winds are expected to reach up to 40 miles per hour.
Good luck to me attempting to fly out of here today.
Yes, I know Iowans are hardy folk and used to winter weather, but this is going to have a serious impact on the Iowa caucus, and no one can foresee how it will affect turnout, other than to know some people who otherwise would have showed up will stay home, away from icy roads.
Today’s blizzard means the doorknockers will not be out in force in the coming days. The candidates are probably going to have a tough time getting from one rally or event to another, some events are likely to be canceled, and turnout at these events will be lower than normal. (Nikki Haley canceled some of today’s scheduled in-person events and replaced them with tele-town halls.)
The storm should pass within a day, but the projected high temperature on caucus night is . . . negative five, and the low is negative six. It’s probably going to be the coldest night for an Iowa caucus ever. In 2016, the last time the GOP had a seriously contested nomination, 186,932 Republicans participated in the caucus. The temperature in Des Moines that night was 47 degrees. The state looks unlikely to hit that turnout this time.
The Iowa Democratic caucus is, by most measures, dead. After the debacle of 2020, when it took days to count the votes, the Democratic National Committee chose to punish Iowa by moving it to Super Tuesday.
Iowa Democrats are now holding what they call a “mail-in expression of presidential preference.” Democrats can request a preference card until February 19, and then the party will announce the results on Super Tuesday, March 5.
The state’s Democrats are going to hold in-person precinct caucuses Monday night, but they won’t be voting on any presidential candidates. They’ll “elect unbound delegates and alternate delegates to county conventions, elect county central committee members and discuss platform resolutions that can be shared at county conventions.” Gotta wonder how many Democrats want to drive on icy roads through frigid temperatures to elect unbound delegates and discuss platform resolutions.
New Hampshire Democrats will vote on January 23, although Joe Biden’s name won’t be on the ballot. New Hampshire was also bumped back from the beginning of the primary schedule. (Recall Biden finished fifth in the 2020 New Hampshire primary.) New Hampshire officials, including Democrats, effectively declared, “To heck with you. We’re going to hold our primary first anyway.” In fact, state law requires New Hampshire to hold its presidential primary “7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election.” The DNC insists that what New Hampshire is holding is a “non-binding advisory primary.”
Thus, the first votes that the DNC recognizes as real that will determine the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination will be in South Carolina on February 3.
And as we saw earlier this week, Dean Phillips is not exactly setting the world on fire in New Hampshire.
Did Democrats Ever Have a Serious Choice besides Biden?
Yesterday, our Dan McLaughlin listed four reasons why Democrats will not substitute out Joe Biden as their nominee at the last minute, barring some genuine health issue that makes it impossible for Biden to run. Dan points out there’s no mechanism to make it happen, nobody wants Kamala Harris, there’s no consensus on who would replace Biden, and the parties have internalized the idea that you never, ever, ever abandon an incumbent.
Let us note that for all Biden’s weaknesses, he managed to get through 2023 without any big name in the party launching a primary bid against him.
Joe Biden is, on paper, a spectacularly weak incumbent president. His approval ratings have been in the dumpster since 2021. The head-to-head polling is looking increasingly grim. The president is 81 years old and looks every day of it. He was never the most eloquent speaker, and now his staff doesn’t trust him to speak off the teleprompter. He remembers things that didn’t happen and doesn’t remember things that did happen. His allies are already talking up excuses to skip the fall debates. Apparently, Biden spoke to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in the hospital Saturday, but did not ask Austin why he was in the hospital. Oh, and his son is facing criminal charges on tax evasion and lying on a gun-permit application.
And yet, despite all these weaknesses, we haven’t seen any name bigger than Phillips stand up and say, “Joe Biden should not be our party’s nominee.” Yes, California governor Gavin Newsom sure acts like he wants to be the Democratic nominee, but he’s more like a backup quarterback hoping the starter gets injured.
For all the grumbling about Biden and the widespread sense that he’s too old to serve another full term, Phillips is at 16 percent in the latest poll of New Hampshire, and Marianne Williamson is at 5 percent.
For all his obvious weaknesses, there is still fear of openly crossing Joe Biden, or of openly crossing his team. Because if you come at the king, you best not miss. And really, which other figures in the Democratic Party looked like they had the stature, nationwide support, fundraising network, and charisma to run a successful primary challenge against Biden? Maybe Newsom. Gretchen Whitmer? Come on. Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders — all these figures had their shot against Biden in 2020 and fell short.
ADDENDUM: Our Michael Brendan Dougherty makes his case for Ron DeSantis:
Why? Very simple. He’s been the leader of the opposition to progressive America, and he was that leader even while Donald Trump was still in office as president of the United States. He is the most effective conservative executive in the country, and it’s not very close. He became this way because he takes care to comprehend his role as a statesman, understanding his powers and their limits. His record of governance in Florida and his last several debate performances show him as a man who does the homework — reads his briefing books with an open and working intellect.