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 ere's another set of
key, close races involving Second Amendment rights. Coupled with my
Friday column, it's a handy guide to
every major congressional race where there's a big difference between
the candidates on guns, and where both sides have a realistic chance of
winning. As for closely watched races where there's no difference —
such as anti-gun Rep. Brian Bilbray's (R., San Diego) tough race against
an equally anti-gun challenger, I'll leave them to other writers.
The grades discussed in this column are the National Rifle Association
Political Victory Fund candidate ratings, which are available
online, as are ratings from
Gun Owners of America; the latter group
is much more parsimonious with good grades, and also rates third party
candidates. The NRA website includes state-legislature candidate ratings,
too.
Pundits rate all the races discussed below as close, so turnout and final-days
volunteers may make all the difference.
California
The old media are consumed with hope that Republican Jim Rogan (C-rated)
will lose his Pasadena seat (the 27th congressional district) to Adam
Schiff (F) as punishment for Rogan's having served as a manager of the
impeachment of one the greatest presidents in history.
But the media are missing the stiff challenge faced by five-term Democrat
Cal Dooley (F) in the 20th congressional district (Fresno and Central
Valley), where Dooley's constant anti-gun voting record puts him out of
step with his district. Republican Rich Rodriguez came within five points
of Dooley in the open primary.
Democrat Lois Capps (F) is just as extreme on guns as Dooley, but is closer
to the political center of her Santa Barbara 22d congressional district.
Even so, she is only marginally ahead against Republican Mike Stoker (A).
Connecticut
On gun issues, this state's congressional delegation is way out of line
with a state that is one of the centers of the firearms business, and
one of the first to allow law-abiding adults to carry handguns in public
for lawful protection. Besides the 2nd district Gejdenson/Simmons race,
discussed in my previous column, Second Amendment advocates have a very
real possibility of picking up the 5th district (central Connecticut,
Waterbury, and Danbury). Scandal-plagued incumbent Democrat Jim Maloney
(F) beat Mark Nielson by only 2 percent in 1998; notwithstanding the Gore
landslide expected in Connecticut, this race will be very close again.
Florida
Jacksonsville (3rd district) Democrat Corrine Brown (F) was weakened in
1998 by a long series of personal scandals, but survived when her opponent's
own scandals surfaced. Brown, a mediocre campaigner, is up against another
black woman, Republican Jennifer Carroll (A), whom MSNBC calls "a stellar
candidate."
The retirement of Charles Canady, Congress's leading opponent of quotas,
leaves an open seat in the 12th district (Central Florida, Lakeland).
Republican state representative Adam Putnam (A) faces auto-dealer Democrat
Mike Stedem (F).
Georgia
Republican Bob Barr (North Georgia, 7th district) is not just the most
energetic and effective pro-gun congressman, fully deserving his A+ ranking
from the NRA. He is a national treasure on civil liberties — leading
the successful fight for forfeiture reform in the last Congress, and constantly
standing guard against measures to expand warrantless searches or wiretapping.
Primarily because Barr was a House impeachment manager and his opponent
Roger Kahn (C-) is well funded, the race remains too close for comfort.
Indiana
South Bend Democrat Tim Roemer (F) consistently runs well ahead of the
rest of the Democratic ticket. Even so, Republican Chris Chocola (A) remains
within upset range.
Evansville's congressional district is known as the "Bloody 8th" for its
history of hard-fought, extremely close races. Republican John Hostettler
gets an A from the NRA, while Democratic challenger Paul Perry, a physician,
rates a B. But the letter grades understate the importance of this race
for the Second Amendment. This summer, Hostettler was the leader
in Congress for a series of amendments aimed at undoing the damage of
the Clinton/Gore/Cuomo blackmail "agreement" with Smith & Wesson. Hostettler
succeeded at preventing federal agencies from giving preferential treatment
to Smith & Wesson, but narrowly missed getting enough votes to defund
the Department of Housing and Urban Development's implementation of the
"agreement."
Kansas
Democrat Dennis Moore (F) beat a staunchly pro-gun incumbent in 1998,
taking over a Republican-leaning district which includes Kansas City,
Kansas, and its suburbs. Republican Phill Kline (A) has a realistic chance
to win this seat.
Minnesota
Democrat Bruce Vento represented the 4th district, in St. Paul, until
his death. Democrat Betty McCollum (F) starts with a large registration
advantage, but Gov. Jesse Ventura is backing independent Tom Foley. This
creates a potential opening for Republican state senator Linda Runbeck
(A), a true conservative, who wants a major federal tax cut, and opposes
federal intervention in health care and education.
Nebraska
The Senate seat of retiring Democrat Bob Kerrey (claimed to be pro-gun
when first running, then reliably voted anti-gun) is a sure pickup for
Second Amendment rights. Republican Attorney General Don Stenberg and
Democrat Governor Ben Nelson are both A-rated.
In the third district, representing the western part of the state, former
Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne is expected to easily defeat his Democratic
opponent Rollie Reynolds, although Osborne has only a B rating, and Reynolds
an A.
Nevada
Democratic senator Harry Reid's retirement offers another good chance
for a pro-gun gain in the Senate, with Republican John Ensign (A) currently
leading Democrat Ed Bernstein (F).
One might expect that the congressperson from Las Vegas would be tolerant
of different lifestyles, but Democrat incumbent Shelley Berkeley rates
an F from the NRA PVF, based on her unremitting hostility to gun owners,
and she has been rewarded with television commercials on her behalf from
Handgun Control, Inc. She is challenged by state senator John Porter (A).
New Hampshire
Republican Charles Bass (A) represents the second district, consisting
of western and northern New Hampshire. He always faced strong opposition,
this time from school-board member Barney Brannen (A), who has outpaced
Bass in fundraising.
New Mexico
The Albuquerque first congressional district belongs to Republican Rhodes
Scholar Heather Wilson (A). Her opponent is Democrat John Kelly (F), a
former U.S. attorney and F.O.B., who became friends with Bill at Georgetown.
The district has a Democratic registration advantage.
Oregon
Democrat David Wu (F) is the incumbent in the 1st congressional district,
which includes much of Portland. Challenger Charles Starr (A) lags in
fundraising, but remains within range of an upset.
Oregon will also have a vote on a ballot initiative sponsored by state
senator Ginny Burdick, a favorite of the state's gun-prohibition lobby.
The initiative mimics the national gun-prohibition strategy by claiming
to be a law about "gun shows," but instead imposes gun-registration requirements
on firearms transactions that have nothing to do with gun shows.
Texas
Dallas Republican Pete Sessions (A+) has a strong challenge from Democrat
Regina Coggins (did not return NRA questionnaire).
Virginia
Besides the Allen (A) vs. Robb (F) race for the U.S. Senate, Virginians
will also vote on adding a right to hunt and fish to the state constitution.
The 8th district, is represented by Democrat Jim Moran (F) whose race
against Demaris Miller (A) may be closer than expected, due to the Washington
Post's Oct. 31 story that Moran received a loan from a drug lobbyist.
Washington
The first congressional district, covering north Seattle and the Puget
Sound, changed parties three times in the 1990s. Incumbent Democrat Jay
Inslee (F) is running against Republican Dan McDonald (B+).
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