2022 Midterms: How the Campaigns Are Breaking Entering the Final Week

Catching up on crunching the numbers for the latest polling in the statewide midterm races for the Senate and the governorships, let’s update my method, described here and applied further here and here. The picture in the Senate is growing clearer on the margins than in the center, as we have a few polls clarifying which races aren’t on the table:

Oklahoma is off the board. Mike Lee leads by ten points in the latest Emerson poll, the first poll in this race by a big national pollster, and the first showing any candidate above 42 percent, which suggests that the prior Deseret News polls (the News is supportive of Evan McMullin) weren’t pushing people very hard to decide. Emerson is an A-rated pollster in the FiveThirtyEight rankings, and there’s little in the way of a prior track record for the Deseret News’s polling. (In 2010, its polls more or less called Mike Lee’s first victory, but also had a lot of undecideds. It doesn’t seem to have conducted polls in 2016). Eric Schmitt appears to have put Missouri away. Marco Rubio’s race is off the board, and the open-seat race in Alabama was finally polled, showing a 29-point lead for Katie Boyd Britt. By contrast, we still have sparse polling in Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, and Vermont.

About the Author

Dan McLaughlin

Dan McLaughlin is a senior writer at National Review Online and a fellow at National Review Institute.

Featured Tags

Catching up on crunching the numbers for the latest polling in the statewide midterm races for the Senate and the governorships, let’s update my method, described here and applied further here and here. The picture in the Senate is growing clearer on the margins than in the center, as we have a few polls clarifying which races aren’t on the table:

Oklahoma is off the board. Mike Lee leads by ten points in the latest Emerson poll, the first poll in this race by a big national pollster, and the first showing any candidate above 42 percent, which suggests that the prior Deseret News polls (the News is supportive of Evan McMullin) weren’t pushing people very hard to decide. Emerson is an A-rated pollster in the FiveThirtyEight rankings, and there’s little in the way of a prior track record for the Deseret News’s polling. (In 2010, its polls more or less called Mike Lee’s first victory, but also had a lot of undecideds. It doesn’t seem to have conducted polls in 2016). Eric Schmitt appears to have put Missouri away. Marco Rubio’s race is off the board, and the open-seat race in Alabama was finally polled, showing a 29-point lead for Katie Boyd Britt. By contrast, we still have sparse polling in Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, and Vermont.