In re the global warming fuss, please note the following from my review of Nicholas Wade’s Before the Dawn in our Summer Books suggestions.
“Halfway through the 50,000-year span of modern human history outside Africa, when the moderns were in complete possession of Eurasia (though not yet the Americas), a terrible climactic calamity descended on them: the Last Glacial Maximum. All of north Europe and Scandinavia disappeared under the ice, along with great tracts of northern Asia. This event — which was, of course, entirely natural — far exceeded anything Al Gore could imagine.”
Apart from the main point–which is, that Ma Nature can do, and in fact has done, far worse things to us with a flick of a wrist than we are ever likely to do to ourselves–I should apologize for that “climactic.” I meant, of course, “climatic.” This was not a world-wide orgasm… though the earth probably did move a little.
On the point about climate scientists misbehaving and politicking–what’s surprising? There is stuff we know for sure, where the data all points one way, and the theory has passed every observational test we can think up. There is stuff we are less sure about. There is stuff totally fuzzy–like, trying to measure the overall mean temperature of the earth to a fraction of a degree, and then repeat the measurement for the earth of 50 or 100 years ago. The data points in all directions. Naturally scientists, who are human beings, will favor the direction that suits their inclinations and preconceptions, and propagandize on that basis. If the data gets clearer, the ones proved wrong by it will fall silent, or face the ridicule of their peers. That’s how it goes when the science is real fuzzy. It doesn’t tell you anything about science at large. A water molecule is still two hydrogen atoms, one oxygen. Moving electric charges still generate magnetic fields. The earth still goes round the sun. Human beings still evolved from nonhuman predecessors. E still equals M C squared. We know these things, and lots of other things, to as high a degree of certainty as it is possible to know anything outside our own sensations. Is anthropogenic global warming going on? That we do not know.






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