Romney wins Nevada handily; Huckabee wins SC on a wave of evangelical turn-out (Ralph Reed thinks he needs about a 50% evangelical electorate to win), saddling McCain with two straight losses in contested states going into Florida; Romney edges out Thompson for third, leaving Thompson with a fourth-place finish that would make his campaign an irrelevance in competing for conservatives voters going forward.

Less ideal: Fred beats Romney for third, meaning Romney has an embarrassing fourth-place finish in a state where he has poured a lot of resources.

Less ideal still: Romney finishes fourth and McCain wins, meaning McCain looks strong going into Florida.

Disastrous: Romney finishes fourth, McCain wins, and somehow Romney loses Nevada on top of it.

UPDATE:

This is a good point, via e-mail:

Wouldn’t it be just as good for Romney if McCain won over Huck? A loss for Huck should drive his numbers down in Florida significantly. McCain and Giuliani, then, would split the moderate-indy vote, thereby leaving Romney to assume the conservative mantle and the ability to pick up some of the former Huck vote. When Romney earlier this week announced that he thought McCain had SC wrapped up, this is what I thought he had in mind. (BTW, I’m a Paul man, although I would prefer Romney over the remaining field.)

E-mail:

Epic Disaster: McCain wins SC, Romney finishes in single digits behind Thompson, but Thompson is far enough behind McCain and Huck that he drops out an endorses McCain before FL. McCain announces Fred will be senior policy advisor on judges and immigration.