The European Union’s top diplomat has announced a “pause” in the Vienna negotiations on reviving the America-led multilateral deal to delay Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. Eleventh-hour Russian demands are said to be the culprit.
EU foreign minister Josep Borrell, in a tweet, cited “external factors” as the cause for suspending the talks. The Washington Post reports that the seven parties were on the cusp of a new deal when things were derailed by last weekend’s Russian demands for written assurances that its key participation in the deal would be insulated from sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies. The sanctions were imposed because of the unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s regime.
As I detailed in a column last weekend, even as President Biden has condemned Russia’s aggression, his administration has made Putin’s regime its most significant intermediary in the talks with Tehran, a client of Moscow. Not only has Putin’s envoy, Mikhail Ulyanov, been delegated a leading role — because Iran still will not deign to meet with Biden’s Iran-friendly envoy, Robert Malley; the new deal hinges on Russia’s agreement to house the uranium that Iran has been enriching to levels ever closer to weapons grade.
Borrell reports that the new agreement is so close to being completed that its final text is “essentially ready and on the table.” In fact, the Post says that “a podium for the final ceremonies had been erected in the Palais Coburg hotel” where negotiations are taking place.
Besides the U.S., Iran, and Russia, four other nations are participating in the talks: China, Britain, and — from the EU — France and Germany. The Post speculates that the deal could be completed without Russian participation, particularly if another country were to accept the role of storing Iran’s enriched uranium (the return of which, by the way, Iran expects — and sooner if its side of the bargain decides that the U.S. is not keeping up its end).
Don’t be surprised if China steps up to the plate.
Contrary to the Biden administration’s claims, the new deal would not be a revival of its Obama-Biden administration predecessor, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Among other things, it is anticipated that Iran would receive sanctions relief for matters separate from its nuclear work, including its sponsorship of anti-American terrorism, its ballistic-missile development, its regional aggression, and its human-rights abuses. The sanctions relief would immediately make approximately $90 billion in frozen assets available to Tehran, which would also reap an estimated $50 to $55 billion in additional annual revenue from oil production enabled by the deal. (See my other prior posts on this, here, here, and here)