Dan McLaughlin (here at NRO) and Ron Brownstein (in The Atlantic) have each just written about it. Brownstein quotes an anonymous Democratic strategist who says, “as Democrats, I don’t think we can count on Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Michigan is drifting away too.”

That’s right. Each of those states gave a lower percentage of the vote to Republican presidential candidates than the nation as a whole did in the 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections; each of them gave a higher percentage of the vote than the nation as a whole in 2016 and 2020. Pennsylvania has now moved slightly in the Republicans’ favor in every election since 2004; Wisconsin has in every election since 2008. Florida seems to be getting more Republican in presidential voting, too.

None of those states seems out of contention for the Democrats in 2024. But if they win Florida, it will probably mean they had a majority of the Electoral College without it. If the Republican candidate is competitive nationally, he’ll take Pennsylvania.