Mark: I can’t let you (or USA Today) get away with talking about US fertility rates unless you are going to talk about the differential rates by sub-population.

Here are the actual numbers, from the National Center for Health Statistics.

Year Hispanic TFR Non-Hisp. Black TFR Non-Hisp. White TFR 1990 2.960 2.548 1.851 1991 2.964 2.532 1.823 1992 2.958 2.483 1.804 1993 2.895 2.413 1.786 1994 2.839 2.315 1.783 1995 2.799 2.187 1.778 1996 2.772 2.140 1.781 1997 2.681 2.138 1.786 1998 2.653 2.164 1.825 1999 2.649 2.134 1.839 2000 2.730 2.179 1.866 2001 2.749 2.105 1.843 2002 2.718 2.047 1.829 2003 2.786 2.028 1.857 2004 2.825 2.020 1.847 2005 2.885 2.019 1.840 2006 2.959 2.115 1.864 A graph makes things easier. I’ve created one here. Do you like my graph, Mark?