Apage is turning in America’s political history, and everyone is trying hard to predict what’s next. Opinions are everywhere, but a trustworthy analyst can be hard to find, which is one reason to appreciate George Hawley’s latest book, The Moderate Majority.
The book is a treasure for one simple reason: it’s boring. A political scientist at the University of Alabama, Hawley has an almost preternatural ability to walk into a field riddled with political land mines and start describing what he sees in the measured tones of a weatherman or cartographer. He sticks to his data. He produces charts and graphs. He acknowledges uncertainty as he lays out competing explanations for noteworthy trends. He doesn’t bend over backwards to conceal all his own political views; for instance, it’s clear enough that he regards racism and political violence as bad and thinks Joe Biden won the 2020 election. But those points come up only in passing, and it’s clear he isn’t looking to advance a political agenda. Hawley is every inch the nose-to-grindstone social scientist.












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