Dear Weekend Jolter,
One hardly needs to squint to see the lessons from this week’s anticlimactic midterm elections.
For Democrats, who might be patting themselves on the back for avoiding an absolute wipeout, the persistent polling showing voters exasperated by the party’s stewardship of the economy and basic law enforcement should temper their elation, and prompt a tack toward center (don’t hold your breath). For Republicans, the failure to translate this highly favorable environment into decisive majorities invites the party to return to basics: candidate quality, an actual agenda — and to hell with Trump loyalty tests.
National Review has been making the case for these fundamentals for a long time. It would be far more lucrative to do something else — ballyhooing the bomb-throwers, including those donning red hats, gets more clicks, after all — but we think it’s important to write what we think is true, and what we think is best for the country. To help maintain that independence, and, we hope, credibility with our readers, we run what we call “webathons” from time to time; we just launched one in the wake of the midterms, and hope you’ll consider donating as we marshal resources to cover what comes next.
The time for a reset is now. House Republicans can use their likely narrow majority to provide a check on Biden administration excesses, but the party will have to work to build on modest gains and provide a trustworthy option to voters in the next election cycle. Rich Lowry writes that “the successful conservative model is out there, flight-tested and proven, in Georgia and Florida,” and he frames the choice this way:
To me, the election hung a lantern on two possible paths for conservatism, one of which points toward victory and perhaps a national majority in 2024 that can make a conservative reform agenda a reality — and the other toward frustration and defeat.
We are wholly devoted to the first path. We will continue to combat the excesses of the Left and call out the asinine and lawless Biden administration, while assiduously working for a conservatism that can, and will, succeed.
The takeaway that voters value steady, proven leadership over cable-friendly celebrity and proximity to Mar-a-Lago was clearest in states where they delivered mixed results for the party’s top of ticket: Georgia, where rock-solid Governor Brian Kemp soundly defeated Stacey Abrams (again), yet scandal-scarred Herschel Walker struggled in the Senate race; or New Hampshire, where Governor Chris Sununu cruised to reelection, yet Trump-aligned Senate candidate and fair-weather election denier Don Bolduc tanked.
As NR’s editorial concluded: “Rarely has an election had simpler and more obvious lessons.”
Looking ahead, NR will pair fair-minded and clear-eyed coverage with a roadmap as we see it. On the eve of the election, Nate Hochman pitched a “working-class agenda” for the GOP. Over the summer in the magazine, NR published an urgent appeal for Republicans to advance their policy ideas rather than relitigate 2020 ad nauseam. Yuval Levin followed up his essay this week with a few more thoughts, including that Republicans must work harder to not repel the median voter. Mark Antonio Wright adds, “The Republican Party must become the party of persuasion.” It’s time. The aconstitutional and spendthrift tendencies of this administration need checking, and voters are crying out for a reliable alternative.
While we do all we can to effect a reset, please, if you can spare it, chip in whatever you can to help this plucky publication right the ship. Thank you.
NAME. RANK. LINK.
EDITORIALS
NR’s editorial on the midterm results, once more, is here: Red Mist
This shouldn’t be so hard: Count All the Votes on Election Night
ARTICLES
Dan McLaughlin: What Went Wrong, and Right, on Election Night
Charles C. W. Cooke: Florida Is a Red State Now
Charles C. W. Cooke: Donald Trump’s GOP Establishment Has Failed
Christian Schneider: Is This the End of the Permanent Candidate Class?
David L. Bahnsen: Pick Now: It’s Trump, or Winning
Caroline Downey: Beto O’Rourke Goes 0 for 3 after Spending $164 Million in Failed Campaigns
Andrew McCarthy: The Silver Lining of a Dismal Midterm Performance
Philip Klein: Donald Trump’s Covid Attack on Ron DeSantis Will Backfire Spectacularly
Ryan Mills: Georgia Sets Midterm Turnout Record Despite Vote-Suppression Fear-Mongering
Dominic Pino: Brian Kemp Is Better at Politics Than You Are
Brittany Bernstein: Mike Lawler Becomes First Republican to Defeat DCCC Chairman in 40 Years
Alexandra DeSanctis: Don’t Blame Dobbs
Rich Lowry: The Lunacy of U.S. Racial Categories
John McCormack: Biden’s Disgraceful Exit from Afghanistan Is Still Hurting Democrats
CAPITAL MATTERS
Kevin Hassett warns Republicans that the economic picture will likely get worse before it gets better: Republicans Must Plan for the Coming Perfect Storm
Brian Riedl definitively busts the Biden-advanced myth that he’s a fiscal warrior: New Data Shatter the Conventional Wisdom on Spending, Taxes, and Deficits
LIGHTS. CAMERA. REVIEW.
Armond White has the latest on the pretension beat: Cate Blanchett — Arty, Histrionic, and Snobbish — in Tár
Brian Allen plays Tudor tutor, rolling out a two-parter (check out the second this weekend) on the Met’s new exhibition about the long-reigning dynasty: Tudor Show at the Met Excites but Doesn’t Excel
FROM THE NEW, NOVEMBER 28, 2022, ISSUE OF NR
Jim Geraghty: Biden’s Lost Marbles
Matthew Continetti: The 2024 Presidential Contest Has Begun
Charles C. W. Cooke: From Red Wave to Red Shoals
Madeleine Kearns: Bodies Politic
Dominic Pino: Impeach Miguel Cardona
Philip Klein: Small Government Still Matters
POSSIBLY THE LAST EXCERPTS YOU’LL SEE BEFORE THE 2024 RACE BEGINS
Dan McLaughlin breaks down the good, the bad, and the Trumpy from this week’s midterms:
The good news on the Republican side is thumping, landslide victories for stars such as Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, Brian Kemp, Greg Abbott, Kim Reynolds, Chris Sununu, and Kristi Noem. Ron Johnson seems to have survived yet another close race, and for all the hype and fretting after some ugly local polling, Mike Lee is winning by 14 points at this counting, and so is Oklahoma governor Kevin Stitt. The wins for incumbents even justified Charles Grassley’s decision to seek yet another term at age 89 when he had a ready-made heir lined up in his grandson, Pat, the speaker of the Iowa House.
The bad news is that Republicans failed to take out top target Mark Kelly in the Senate, fell far short of beating Maggie Hassan, Patty Murray, or Michael Bennet, and failed across the board in a lot of seemingly close races against incumbent governors such as Laura Kelly, Tony Evers, Gretchen Whitmer, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Tim Walz, Kathy Hochul, Daniel McKee, and Janet Mills. The same pattern could be seen in a lot of House races, where Republicans targeted apparently endangered Democrats and came up agonizingly short. . . .
It is hard to see how things could have gone any worse for Donald Trump if he is looking at a potential battle with Ron DeSantis for the 2024 nomination. DeSantis comes out of these midterms looking not only like a political juggernaut, but like a man who has an answer that has eluded the national party. He stayed out of national primaries, was a good soldier campaigning for Zeldin, Lake, and Mastriano in places where Trump was not invited or didn’t go, and so dominated Florida that the perennially biggest swing state (won twice by Barack Obama) and third-largest state in the country is now being written off as a red state. DeSantis has, at this writing, a bigger margin of victory than Gavin Newsom’s in California. Trump’s taking a swipe at DeSantis on the eve of the election went over badly and looks even worse now.
Trump, by contrast, showed an unerring instinct for picking losers. Nearly everywhere on the map that his influence was important in choosing the Republican nominee, the nominee lost or ran well behind the rest of the ticket. Mastriano, Oz, Masters, Lake, and Bolduc all lost. Trump candidates got blown out in the gubernatorial races in Maryland and Illinois, and trail in the secretary of state races in Arizona, Michigan, and Minnesota. Vance and Walker ran well behind their states’ GOP gubernatorial candidates. In Michigan’s third district, Trump’s successful revenge against Peter Meijer for Meijer’s impeachment vote cost Republicans a House seat. . . .
Trump selected his endorsees due to one criterion: their willingness to support his claim that the 2020 election was stolen. That may have sealed the fate of some of them. Kari Lake, in particular, proved to be a remarkably talented campaigner, skilled on television and expert at pushing back at hostile media. That had more than a few observers talking her up as a national figure. But now, it appears she could not even beat a colorless Democratic functionary who was recommended for the governorship solely on the basis that she stood up for the integrity of Arizona’s conduct of that election.
Democrats still have an ideology problem, which they are unlikely now to fix, and they also still have a Joe Biden problem, which will also now prove harder for them to even acknowledge. But Republicans have a personnel problem and an organization problem, and it is screamingly obvious from 2022 that this will not be solved unless and until the party chooses a new leader who is not Donald Trump.
David Bahnsen adds a bit more emphasis to Dan’s final point:
Republicans have to pick between Donald Trump and winning. Period.
There is no narrative that leads to any conclusion other than this out of Tuesday night’s results. Did Dobbs cause Herschel Walker to tie while Brian Kemp won by 8 percent in the same state? Did Dobbs hurt Republican congressional candidates in Ohio but not New York and New Jersey? I am open to the idea that Dobbs had marginal impact in some races (yet also unfazed by such, because of my fondness for human life and the U.S. Constitution), but to ignore the obvious takeaway from 2018, 2020, and now 2022 requires a willful refusal to see something in front of you punching you in the face.
Much of Trumpism remains popular. Donald Trump is not. Not with women. Not with independents. Not with moderates. Not with young people. Not with college graduates. Not with a statistically meaningful enough part of the electorate that his presence, aura, and input will do anything other than cost us elections.
“But he fights.” Well, he loses.
“He did a lot of good.” Yes, he did. But he also cost us the House, Senate, and White House.
Meanwhile, it is official: Florida is a red state now. From Charles C. W. Cooke:
Florida’s transformation into a red state happened like Hemingway’s infamous bankruptcy: gradually, and then all at once.
For 30 years, Florida has been tough for the Democrats: The Sunshine State has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994; it has not elected a Democratic legislature since 1992; the last year in which a Senate or presidential candidate won here was 2012; and, in 2018, the only Democrat elected statewide was that lunatic, Nikki Fried. But, while Republicans have tended to win here, they’ve tended to win in nail-biters. Despite Republican waves in the rest of the country, the GOP prevailed in the Florida governor’s races by just 1 percent in 2014 and 1.2 percent in 2010. In 2016, Trump eked out a win by 1.2 percent. In 2020, that number was 3.4 percent. Four years ago, in races that both went to mandatory recounts, Ron DeSantis won the gubernatorial contest by 30,000 votes and Rick Scott won the Senate race by just 10,000. Between 1992 and 2016, voters in Florida filled in 48,263,173 presidential-election ballots. In that time, the difference between the Republican votes and the Democratic votes was just 17,753 — or 0.0004 percentage points of the total. Those 17,753 went to the Democrats.
Now? Something has changed. No longer can Florida be seen as a swing state. This is Republican ground. Tuesday night, Ron DeSantis blew out Charlie Crist by 19 points. . . and counting. This feat was echoed by Marco Rubio, who won by 16; by the Republican candidates for attorney general, chief financial officer, and agriculture commissioner, who all won by ten points or more; in the state legislature, which seems likely to feature Republican supermajorities in both chambers; and by the Republican candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives, who won 20 of their 27 races. For the first time in a long time, Republicans didn’t just win in Florida; they won big in Florida.
Last, a word from Brian Riedl at the Manhattan Institute concerning budget myths, among them Biden’s insistence — which grew ever more strident approaching Election Day — that he’s a paragon of thrift:
President Biden has been bragging that he “reduced the deficit by a record $1.4 trillion.” But this is grossly misleading. When the president was inaugurated, CBO projected that the scheduled expiration of pandemic spending would automatically reduce deficits to $2.3 trillion in 2021 and then $1.1 trillion in 2022. Instead, the president ran deficits of $2.8 trillion and $1.4 trillion, respectively — a cumulative $800 billion higher than projected. Most absurdly, the president pushed up the 2021 deficit with the American Rescue Plan and then took credit for “deficit reduction” when his own spending expired. This is like someone demanding credit for putting out a fire that he started.
Overall, since Biden took office, he has enacted legislation and executive actions that will cost Americans a net total of $4.8 trillion over the coming decade. After incorporating economic and technical revisions, the 2021-2031 projected deficit is up by $3.8 trillion since Inauguration Day.
Honorable Mention
Our friends over at National Review Institute are in the market for applicants for the spring 2023 session of their Burke to Buckley Program, being held in Miami, New York, and Philadelphia. Interested? The details are here:
There are very few places in our society where individuals can gather, discuss big ideas, and debate the merit of these ideas — respectfully, and without fear of reprisal. Offering this kind of forum through the Burke to Buckley Program is one way that National Review Institute preserves and promotes the Buckley legacy.
The in-person Burke to Buckley Program is an eight-session series designed for mid-career professionals to gain a deeper understanding of conservative thought and to build a network of talented individuals who can assist one another professionally and personally for years to come. Candidates should have between 10 and 25 years of professional work experience and ideally be between 35 and 55 years old. This program is not intended for recent graduates or people working in the fields of public policy or politics.
Applications can be accessed on the NRI website. Please note that there is a $500 fee which partially offsets the cost of the program for accepted fellows. Please contact Lynn Gibson at lynn@nrinstitute.org if you have any questions or would like additional information.
The deadline to apply for the Spring 2023 Burke to Buckley Program in Miami, New York, and Philadelphia is December 1. Learn more and apply here.
Shout-Outs
Seth Barron, at City Journal: New York Chooses the Status Quo
Asra Q. Nomani, at Quillette: The Great Cover-Up
Noah Rothman, at Commentary: ‘Equity’ Was a Costly Error
Jonah Goldberg, at the Los Angeles Times: Elon Musk mistook Twitter for the real world
CODA
With all this talk of waves — talk that is now receding, to extend the metaphor — some surf music seems appropriate. Chet Atkins tried his (dexterous) hand at this style in a 1960 album called Teensville, which includes this lovely and thoughtful version of “Sleep Walk.” His slow-dance music might be on the edge of surf; for something right in the zone, the Ventures have what the doctor ordered.
And a programming note: Now that the election is passed, I’ll be out for a spell, handing over the reins of this note to Sir Isaac Schorr. See you on the flip. And thanks for reading (and donating, if that applies).