Georgia Senate Runoffs: Live Updates

David Wasserman, House Editor for The Cook Political Report, says that “[a]t this point, I'd rather be the Dems, esp. Warnock.”

The reasoning? Republican numbers in rural south Georgia — including Lanier, Pulaski, and Wayne counties — appears to be down from the general election.

With eleven percent of the vote counted — primarily early in-person, absentee, and mail-in votes — Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff lead their races against Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue by three and six points, respectively.

Election analysts expected Democrats to take an early lead with early votes being tabulated first and the Atlanta metro area, the political base for Democrats in Georgia, seeing some of the highest turnout rates in the state’s early voting.

. . . But CNN is reporting that the early/VBM share of the total vote has fallen eight points since the general.

Democrats can also be happy with early absentee and vote-by-mail numbers — Fulton and Gwinnett, the two largest counties in Georgia, are so far showing that Ossoff and Warnock have increased their margins from November.

https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1346615020277403649

Georgia Republicans have been fully focused on ensuring rural turnout does not slip with Trump not on the ballot. Early numbers from Webster County (western Georgia) suggest that could be the case.

On Monday, Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly told National Review that the issues affecting Ossoff and Warnock boil down to the former’s ties to China, and the later's radical preaching — including his unabashed pro-choice stance.

NR first broke the story that Ossoff, a producer of investigative documentaries, had quietly amended his financial disclosure form to reflect that he had received payments of at least $5,000 from a CCP-tied media company in Hong Kong (the campaign later said the funding was under the $5,000 threshold, despite not disputing the original reporting). And a watch of Ossoff's only China related work, a 2015 documentary on Chinese investment in Africa, shows it parroted CCP rhetoric.

Warnock, head of Martin Luther King Jr.'s former church in Atlanta, was schooled in radical theology — Ryan Mills obtained a copy of his 2006 doctoral dissertation, showing that he greatly admired James Hal Cone, the founding father of “black liberation theology.” Warnock also has caused waves for his pro-choice views, drawing condemnations from fellow black pastors in Georgia. Pro-life groups have taken full advantage: NR’s Alexandra DeSanctis reported Tuesday that the Susan B. Anthony List had knocked on the doors of 800,000 residents in Georgia.

Speaking of Lin Wood: here's his latest prediction. Kelly Loeffler will win, along with Ossoff, because she “was picked by Communists of both parties who rigged election.”

https://twitter.com/LLinWood/status/1346560959477903361

Polls have now closed in Georgia — and it could be a long night. Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has said that he expects to know the outcomes of both races “tomorrow sometime.”

Here's Ryan Mills on the state of the race.

Republicans have urged Georgians to make a “last stand” to “save America,” though state politics and President Trump’s loss in the general election have complicated matters.

Alleging the election was rigged — in spite of multiple hand recounts showing otherwise — Trump has attacked Georgia governor Brian Kemp and called on secretary of state Brad Raffensperger to find him votes.

Trump allies, including Atlanta’s conspiracy-theorist attorney L. Lin Wood, have been urging Trump’s supporters to boycott the election, worrying GOP strategists. Last week, NR’s Ryan Mills talked to rural Georgia Republicans who are disillusioned with Trump’s loss, but said they were still voting for Loeffler and Perdue.

With control of the Senate on the line, national Democrats have flooded Georgia with record amounts of money. FEC data shows that Jon Ossoff has more donors from California than he does from Georgia. The 33-year-old documentary filmmaker has also benefitted from the vocal backing of Hollywood celebrities, who flocked to Georgia over the last two months to campaign for him and Warnock.

Democratic leadership has not been shy about nationalizing the race either. “Now we take Georgia, then we change America,” Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said last November after the presidential race was called for Biden.

On Schumer's potential wishlist? Progressives have pushed for packing the Supreme Court, implementing the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, and eliminating the legislative filibuster — though moderate Democrats like Joe Manchin (D., W.V.) have pushed back on such sweeping moves.

The energy comes in spite of the fact that Republicans outperformed Democrats in the general election. David Perdue ran ahead of Jon Ossoff — who received 100,000 less votes than Biden — but narrowly missed out on the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff. In the special election to see out the rest of Johnny Isakson’s term, Kelly Loeffler and Doug Collins split the GOP vote, but combined received over 600,000 more votes than Raphael Warnock.