The Trump campaign, which limped into the end of summer beset by fading poll numbers and an erratic candidate, appears to have stabilized in recent weeks. Trump still trails Clinton as we head into the debates, but her lead has narrowed to its pre-convention levels. Nonetheless, the GOP’s path to the White House remains narrow. To win, Trump will have to carry three of the following four states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. That difficult task means that Republicans still have good reason to look beyond November and ask what the future holds should Trump lose.
Much discussion takes for granted that the GOP will be changed utterly by Trump. Commentators have therefore focused either on Trump’s ideological heresies or on the likely electoral residua of his defeat. Will the GOP embrace an anti-trade stance? Will Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric drive Hispanic voters to the Democrats for a generation? These are pertinent questions, but they overlook the ideological core of Trumpism, which is likely to be his greatest legacy. And yes, there is a core.
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