On the menu today: The Consumer Price Index’s new numbers on inflation are absolutely brutal; Jessie Smollett gets convicted; and the wild backstory behind yesterday’s “very special” Three Martini Lunch podcast episode featuring legendary sportscaster Bob Costas.
Despite a Particular Economics Columnist’s Confident Predictions, Inflation Is Really Bad
Paul Krugman, May 7: “[Treasury secretary] Janet Yellen and I believe that the Fed can contain any inflationary risks.”
Paul Krugman, June 21: “For those paying closer attention to the flow of new information, inflation panic is, you know, so last week.”
Paul Krugman, July 23: “Overheating is still possible, and the Fed should keep its eye on that possibility. But the big numbers aren’t as scary as they seem.”
Paul Krugman, August 12: “Anxiety about the inflationary impact of public investment just doesn’t make sense if you work through the numbers.”
Paul Krugman, September 10: “Companies aren’t acting as if they expect lots of future inflation, where they can hike wages without losing competitive advantage. They’re acting, instead, as if they see current inflation as a blip.”
Paul Krugman, November 11: “So yes, that was an ugly inflation report, and we hope that future reports will look better. But people making knee-jerk comparisons with the 1970s and screaming about stagflation are looking at the wrong history. When you look at the right history, it tells you not to panic.”
The New York Times, this morning:
Inflation jumped to the highest level in nearly 40 years, fresh data released on Friday showed, as supply chain disruptions, rapid consumer demand and rising housing costs combined to fuel the strongest inflationary burst in a generation (emphasis added).
The rising costs spell trouble for officials at the Federal Reserve and the White House, who are trying to calibrate policy at a moment when the labor market has yet to completely heal from the pandemic, but the risk that price increases could become more lasting is increasing.
The Consumer Price Index climbed by 6.8 percent in the year through November, the data showed, the fastest pace since 1982.
One of the reasons inflation is such a serious problem right now is that we have an administration, a Fed, and a lot of ideologically or politically aligned economic elites who are wedded to the belief that inflation is not a serious problem.
Jussie Smollett Found Guilty on Five Counts
It’s not the biggest story of 2021, but the judicial system’s holding Jussie Smollett accountable is an important one. Our Ryan Mills was in the courtroom:
Former Empire star Jussie Smollett is guilty of staging a hoax hate crime against himself and then falsely reporting it to police, a jury ruled Thursday, nearly three years after the phony racist and anti-gay attack was carried out early on a frigid January morning.
Smollett was found guilty on five of the six counts of felony disorderly conduct, low-level charges, each tied to making a false report to police. The Empire actor showed no emotion as the verdict was read, standing motionless with an attorney’s hand on his shoulder.
A sentencing hearing is expected to be scheduled in January. Smollett will remain free on bond. He could face up to three years in prison but could also be released on probation. The severity of the sentence will in part depend on whether Judge James Linn determines that Smollett perjured himself during his testimony, as the prosecution alleged.
Yes, Smollett deserves to be mocked, and Kyle Smith wields the flamethrower of ridicule as well as any man alive. (“As for the Smollett pals testifying against him, they produced a $3,500 check Jussie had written them as advance payment, because the ringmaster of this flea circus was too dumb to understand that cash is the preferred payment method when doing stuff you don’t want others to find out about.”)
But Maddy Kearns asked a good question: Did Smollett get what he wanted? When this started, Smollett was a supporting actor on a show that had debuted among the most-watched prime-time shows in network television before falling all the way to 68th by that metric. Now, he’s a household name, even if at least half the country can’t stand him. He’s been mentioned by the president and vice president. Tons of big-name stars offered messages of support after his non-attack. He will always be infamous, and certain people will always gravitate to him because of his infamy.
Over at MSNBC, Ja’han Jones argues that the important point is not that Smollett made it all up but that his story sounded plausible: “Conservatives took to social media in 2019 to express outrage over the dropped charges. How dare someone make such a heinous claim about followers of their dear leader, they screeched. Violent, masked white guys who shout Trump slogans and use chemical agents to attack victims? Many on the right shamed those of us who knew such a claim was totally plausible — and then the Jan. 6 insurrection happened.”
Good to see Jones found the real villain in this story.
How Bob Costas Ended Up Appearing on the Three Martini Lunch Podcast
On yesterday’s “very special” Three Martini Lunch podcast, Greg and I were joined by legendary sportscaster Bob Costas for a wide-ranging conversation on the upcoming Olympic games in Beijing; what the U.S. government, NBC, and Olympic sponsors should do regarding China’s atrocious human-rights record; the activism of athletes; and some of his past comments about the intersection of sports and politics.
If you’ve never listened before, Greg and I never have guests on our usually 20-minutes-or-so podcast; we just zip through three topics — usually a bit of good news for conservatives, one bit of bad news for conservatives, and one simply crazy bit of news. (And along the way, we have a lot of Die Hard, Jets, and Bears jokes.) But the circumstances leading up to this were pretty unique.
About two and a half years ago, Greg and I did a segment teasing Costas, and I said something along the lines of, “I am so sick of guys like Bob Costas saying things like, ‘The Cowboys are using a lot of shotgun formation tonight, but before we talk about that, let me offer a few thoughts on the need for common-sense gun control.’”
A few days later, I received an email from someone claiming to be Bob Costas — “Just want to run something by you. Might add some context regarding sportscasters and political stuff.”
But the email wasn’t from an address at NBC or HBOSports or anyplace else recognizable, and the email address itself was just a bunch of letters. The emailer sent a phone number, but it wasn’t for New York or L.A. or anyplace else I knew Costas was working. There’s absolutely nothing to indicate this was the real Bob Costas, and I suspected this was a reader or listener who was trying to pull my leg. Greg and I are proud of the audience we’ve built, but I found it hard to believe Costas was listening to our podcast and felt the urge to reach out.
I ignored it.
Last week, Greg and I talked about Costas’s appearance on Jake Tapper’s CNN program, during which he offered some vigorous condemnation of the International Olympic Committee for acquiescing to Beijing. We praised Costas for taking the stand, and I mentioned the email and said, “Good job, Mr. Costas, if you’re listening.”
Then, another email came in from the same address, saying that yes, it was Costas, and he was interested in talking more. Boy, this guy is committed to the bit, I thought. I ignored it again . . . and then I got another email two days later, whacking me around for not being willing to engage in a conversation. Fine, I decided. I’d call the number and play along.
The, er, Saint Louis area-code number, I belatedly realized . . . is where Costas has deep roots.
I called, and I heared . . . the voice.
Yup. It was the real Bob Costas whose emails I had been ignoring for years, much to my mortification. He and I had a nice 20-minute-or-so chat and set up yesterday’s appearance — and I hope you’ll give it a listen.
You hear the horror stories about naive and credulous journalists. You almost never hear about the ones who are too skeptical.
ADDENDUM: In case you missed it yesterday, there are some ominous reports that the Biden administration thinks the best way to defuse the tensions surrounding the buildup of Russian military forces on Ukraine’s border is . . . for Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russian-backed separatists and to pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO in the next ten years.
That is not standing up to Vladimir Putin! That is giving Putin some of what he wants and hoping that it placates him!